Export Ambitions Collide With War Risks and Global Uncertainty

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By: Staff Writer

March 10, Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka’s push to redesign its export strategy comes at a moment of mounting global uncertainty, raising questions about whether the country’s ambitious targets can be achieved in a volatile international environment.

Government officials and leading corporate executives gathered last week at a strategy forum hosted by the Sri Lanka Export Development Board to shape a new national export roadmap aimed at expanding the country’s global trade presence.

The event brought together chairpersons and chief executives from across Sri Lanka’s private sector to evaluate export performance in 2025 and define priorities for the coming years.

Presiding over the forum, Industries and Entrepreneurship Development Minister Sunil Handunnetti said the Government intends to play a more active role in strengthening the country’s export ecosystem.

He indicated that the State is willing to act as a key investor in building industrial infrastructure needed by exporters, including improvements to industrial zones, electricity supply and technical facilities used by manufacturers.

The Government argues that such investments are essential if Sri Lankan businesses are to compete more effectively in global markets.

However, the broader global backdrop may complicate those ambitions.

The continuing instability in the Middle East linked to the Israel–Hamas War and rising tensions across the Gulf region have already triggered concerns about energy security and maritime trade disruptions.

For Sri Lanka, which relies heavily on imported fuel and international shipping lanes to move goods to overseas markets, any escalation of conflict could sharply increase logistics costs.

Higher freight charges and volatile energy prices would directly affect export competitiveness, particularly for industries such as apparel, rubber products and tea that operate on relatively narrow margins.

In addition, global demand itself could weaken if geopolitical tensions trigger broader economic slowdowns in major consumer markets.

Against this backdrop, the export roadmap risks becoming overly optimistic unless it factors in the geopolitical and economic shocks that increasingly shape global trade.

The CEO forum nevertheless sought to build consensus between policymakers and business leaders on the strategic direction of Sri Lanka’s export sector.

Officials say the discussions will contribute to a broader national export strategy designed to boost export earnings and strengthen the country’s position in international markets.

While the Government emphasised the importance of cooperation between the public and private sectors to drive export growth, industry observers say structural constraints remain significant.

Sri Lanka’s export sector still struggles with limited diversification, rising input costs and infrastructure bottlenecks.

If geopolitical instability persists and global trade slows, analysts warn that the country’s new export roadmap could quickly collide with economic realities turning ambitious targets into increasingly difficult goals to achieve.