Sri Lanka’s fragile agricultural recovery could face a new setback as warnings emerge about a possible fertiliser shortage caused by policy inconsistency, weak institutional coordination, and delayed procurement decisions.
Farmers’ representatives say the Government’s current approach risks repeating the mistakes that triggered the country’s agricultural crisis in 2021, when sudden policy changes disrupted fertiliser supply chains and reduced crop yields nationwide.
The alarm has been raised by the National Agrarian Union, which argues that authorities are failing to secure adequate fertiliser supplies despite rising global uncertainties.
Union President Anuradha Tennakoon says official claims that Sri Lanka holds fertiliser stocks sufficient for two years do not reflect practical realities. He disputes statements made by Deputy Agriculture Minister Namal Karunarathne, who recently assured the public that fertiliser availability would not be a problem in the near future.
According to Tennakoon, the problem is not merely about quantity but also about storage conditions and supply reliability.
Chemical fertilisers such as urea degrade when stored for extended periods, particularly in tropical climates where humidity and temperature accelerate chemical changes.
“If fertiliser is stored too long, it can lose effectiveness,” he warned, adding that relying on ageing stocks could compromise agricultural productivity.
The dispute also exposes questions about the role of state institutions responsible for fertiliser distribution. Sri Lanka maintains three major government bodies tasked with managing supplies—the National Fertiliser Secretariat, Ceylon Fertiliser Company Limited, and Colombo Commercial Fertiliser Company Ltd.
However, critics claim these institutions have become largely administrative, while private companies dominate the actual import process.
Such dependence on private importers, they argue, limits government control over procurement costs and timing.
Meanwhile, global market conditions are becoming increasingly volatile. Fertiliser production is heavily concentrated in a few regions, particularly the Middle East. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, and Egypt together account for nearly half of the world’s urea exports.
Rising geopolitical tensions in that region could disrupt supply chains and push global prices sharply higher. Analysts warn that if conflict escalates, fertiliser prices could increase by more than 200 percent.
For Sri Lankan farmers, the impact could be severe. Industry estimates suggest the price of a standard 50-kilogram bag of urea could rise to between Rs. 15,000 and Rs. 20,000 if international markets tighten.
The broader implications extend beyond agriculture. Higher fertiliser costs could lead to lower crop yields, rising food prices, and renewed pressure on household incomes.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has already warned about growing global threats to food security due to supply disruptions and geopolitical instability.
Sri Lanka’s experience with the 2021 Sri Lanka organic fertiliser policy serves as a stark reminder of how policy missteps can destabilise agricultural production.
Analysts say avoiding another crisis will require clear procurement strategies, stronger oversight of fertiliser imports, and long-term planning to stabilise supply chains.
Without these reforms, the country risks facing a familiar scenario: fertiliser shortages that cascade into falling harvests, food inflation, and deeper economic strain.