The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in global airfares, with the cheapest economy tickets now costing an average of 24% more than a year ago, according to new research by consultancy Teneo.
The report attributes the increase to widespread airspace restrictions, forcing airlines to reroute flights and significantly increase fuel consumption. At the same time, disruptions to oil supplies have driven up jet fuel prices, which have surged from around $85–$90 per barrel to between $150 and $200 in recent weeks.
Fuel accounts for up to a quarter of airlines’ operating costs, making it a key factor behind rising ticket prices.
The conflict has also reduced capacity on long-haul routes, particularly those typically served by Gulf carriers, many of which have scaled back operations. Although some rival airlines have expanded services, overall seat availability remains below normal levels.
The steepest fare increases have been recorded on routes between Europe and East Asia. A flight from London to Melbourne in June now costs 76% more than last year, while fares from Hong Kong to London have risen by 72%.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to add uncertainty. Reports indicate that U.S. Vice President JD Vance may travel to Pakistan for peace talks, while President Donald Trump has extended the ceasefire with Iran until a broader settlement is reached.
Airlines, particularly in the UK, have warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to further fare hikes and flight reductions. Industry representatives have urged governments to provide support measures, including tax relief, regulatory flexibility, and contingency plans to secure fuel supplies.
Proposals include easing restrictions on flight operations, adjusting passenger taxes, and prioritising jet fuel production if shortages emerge. However, authorities have indicated that there is currently no immediate shortage of jet fuel.
Governments say their priority remains de-escalating the conflict, reopening key trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and minimising disruption to global travel and trade.