By: Staff Writer
November 24, Colombo (LNW): The Sri Lankan government has pledged to continue the renewable energy (RE) initiatives set forth by former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, aiming to achieve 70% of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030.
Despite this ambitious goal, the country’s energy sector is fraught with challenges, including gaps in RE capacity, project delays, and shortfalls in base power generation.
Renewable Energy Aspirations and Current Shortfalls
Sri Lanka’s energy policy targets a 70% RE contribution by 2030, yet current figures show that renewables account for 57.35% of energy generation. To close the gap of 12.65% in the next five years, significant efforts are required.
The Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) plans to follow the Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan (LTGEP) outlined for 2023-2042.
This document aligns with government policies mandating RE as the primary energy source, discouraging coal and emphasizing clean alternatives like regasified LNG.
The LTGEP highlights a gradual increase in RE capacity, projecting it to grow from 2,711 MW in 2022 to 8,783 MW by 2030 and further to 16,963 MW by 2042.
However, the process involves refurbishing or replacing existing RE plants upon the expiration of their lifespan, creating a continuous need to manage and upgrade infrastructure.
Challenges in Meeting Base Load and LNG Integration
Despite an emphasis on RE, Sri Lanka faces a base power shortage of 300-500 MW. The government’s interim solution involves LNG plants, expected to operate on diesel until a shift to natural gas by 2025, pending the completion of necessary infrastructure.
This transition is central to meeting the growing energy demands.The first two 350 MW natural gas plants, under construction, are expected to be operational by 2024-2025.
However, delays in infrastructure development pose risks. Plans to convert existing power plants to natural gas by 2025 are underway, but timelines are tight.
Moreover, the administration is reassessing previous LNG tenders to expedite progress, indicating a need to overcome procedural hurdles.
Delays and Discrepancies in Long-Term Energy Planning
The LTGEP has seen delays and revisions, leading to uncertainty in future energy planning. A revised LTGEP covering 2025-2044 awaits approval from the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL).
This pending approval is critical for long-term energy stability. Meanwhile, PUCSL has raised concerns about cost discrepancies, project timelines, and the absence of comprehensive solutions like integrated solar PV and storage.
Significant projects, including the Uma Oya and Moragolla hydropower plants, have experienced delays, impacting the country’s ability to maintain a reliable energy supply.
To ensure grid stability during anticipated shortages between 2023 and 2025, additional power sources ranging from 320 MW to 120 MW are needed.
Conflicting Roadmaps and Uncertainty Ahead
The PUCSL’s approval of the current LTGEP framework contrasts with the pending review of the updated 2025-2044 plan.
The commission has flagged rising costs for energy storage, exclusion of key projects like the Wewathenna Pumped Storage Plant, and the absence of clear nuclear power and solar integration strategies.
These discrepancies suggest potential conflicts between regulatory oversight and CEB’s execution plans.
Public consultations are ongoing, yet the lack of a finalized roadmap complicates the country’s path toward a renewable energy transition.
The new administration’s commitment to RE is evident, but unresolved issues around infrastructure, cost, and project management pose challenges to achieving the 70% target by 2030.
