By: Staff Writer
January 04, Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka’s coconut export sector crossed the symbolic USD 1 billion mark during the first ten months of 2025, a milestone the government has been quick to celebrate. According to figures released by the Export Development Board (EDB), coconut and coconut-based exports earned USD 1,033.9 million from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.83 percent.
While the Industries Ministry has framed this performance as evidence of its policy success, a closer examination suggests the surge owes much to groundwork laid years earlier rather than a sudden policy breakthrough.
The Ministry of Industry and Entrepreneurship Development highlights the shift from raw coconut exports to value-added products such as liquid coconut milk, virgin coconut oil, coconut cream, desiccated coconut, activated carbon, and coco peat.
Officials argue that this diversification strategy underpins the revenue growth and currently accounts for 7.2 percent of Sri Lanka’s total export earnings. However, industry analysts note that most large-scale processing facilities, export certifications, and market access agreements were established well before the current administration took office.
Global demand trends also played a decisive role. Rising health consciousness in North America, Europe, and East Asia has steadily increased demand for plant-based oils, dairy alternatives, and sustainable industrial inputs like activated carbon.
Sri Lanka, already positioned as a trusted supplier, benefited from this global shift rather than creating it. Exporters confirm that order volumes began expanding as early as 2022, driven by international market recovery and long-term branding of Sri Lankan coconut products.
On the cultivation side, however, the picture is less optimistic. Coconut productivity per hectare remains below potential due to aging plantations, erratic rainfall, and limited replanting. Farmers continue to face fertilizer access issues, fluctuating farmgate prices, and labor shortages. These structural weaknesses raise questions about the sustainability of export-led growth if upstream cultivation constraints are not addressed.
The government’s projection of reaching USD 2.5 billion in coconut export revenue by 2030 has also drawn skepticism. Without substantial new investment in replanting, irrigation, research, and smallholder support, exporters warn that processing capacity could soon outstrip raw nut availability. In that scenario, Sri Lanka risks importing coconuts to feed its own export industry undermining both margins and farmer livelihoods.
By end-2025, the coconut sector’s headline success is real but incomplete. The billion-dollar figure reflects favorable global markets and long-maturing investments rather than a single year’s policy performance. Whether this momentum can be sustained will depend less on press releases and more on long-overdue reforms in cultivation, productivity, and farmer resilience.
