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Sri Lanka Original Narrative Summary: 09/03

  1. Central Bank says LKR appreciates further against the USD: buying at Rs.313.77 & selling at Rs.331.05: many analysts say the sudden appreciation of the LKR is puzzling and suspect a manipulation by certain authorities: inside sources say the IMF has used the LKR value as Rs.400 per USD in 2023 and Rs.500 per USD in 2024 in it’s Debt Sustainability analysis.
  2. Fitch says the LKR, which has become the world’s best performing currency so far this year, will decline and lose a fifth of its value against the dollar by end-2023: maintains its forecast for the LKR to weaken to a record low of Rs.390 per USD by year-end.
  3. Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa says SL must emulate New Zealand and Scotland in combating “period” poverty in women which remains a neglected issue in the country: tweets that male chauvinism and male-dominated political processes have prevented SL from taking progressive steps to address the problem.
  4. Sri Lanka United National Businesses Alliance Chairman Tanya Abesundara says the consumer market will shrink by 60% by April If the CB Governor is unable to prevent the contraction of the economy: asserts the consumer market had already shrunk by 40% last December and therefore the unemployment rate had increased while SMEs have been forced to close down.
  5. Elections Commission Chairman says steps are being taken to hold the postal voting for the Local Government polls from 28 to 31 March 2023.
  6. SJB General Secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara says Opposition political parties will take legal action against Treasury Secretary Mahinda Siriwardana for his failure to attend a meeting with the Elections Commission: Siriwardana had stated he had another meeting to attend.
  7. Sri Lanka’s Official Reserve Assets increase by 4.5% to USD 2,217 mn in Feb’23 from USD 2,121 mn in Jan’23: the reserve assets were USD 1,917 mn in Mar’22, even while all external debts were being settled.
  8. CB data shows Fish production had fallen to a 12-year low in 2022, scarred by the inability to import sufficient quantities of kerosene and diesel as a result of the lack of Forex: total fish production was 397 mn kg last year, compared to 429 mn kg & 435 mn kg respectively during the Covid-19 impacted years of 2020 & 2021.
  9. Ports, Shipping and Aviation Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva says 17 ships that arrived at the Colombo Port were turned back due to the recent protest by the Port trade unions: also says he made a tremendous effort to bring them back but only a few came back.
  10. Mass media Minister & SLPP Economic Guru Dr Bandula Gunawardena says it is still unclear how official creditors including China, Japan and India, would restructure their loans to SL: explains some may agree to a haircut, others could give a debt moratorium, reduce interest rates or have a combination of these: asserts that’s yet to be worked out.

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