By : Ovindi Wishmika
June 17, Colombo(LNW): As Israeli jets pounded Iranian nuclear and military facilities in an unprecedented aerial assault on June 13 dubbed “Operation Rising Lion” the Middle East plunged deeper into one of its most dangerous escalations in decades. Iran’s immediate and fierce response, including over 100 drone strikes and a barrage of ballistic missiles, confirmed what many had feared: the start of an open war between two of the region’s most formidable powers.But as fire and fury engulf the region, the shockwaves are rippling far beyond its borders,disrupting global markets, deepening geopolitical divides, and threatening to plunge vulnerable economies, like Sri Lanka’s, into deeper crisi
A Long Fuse Ignited
The roots of this conflict stretch back decades. Following Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, diplomatic relations with Israel collapsed. Iran’s theocratic leadership has since viewed Israel not just as an adversary, but as a symbol of what it considers Western imperialism. In response, Israel has long perceived Iran’s regional influence especially through proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas as an existential threat.
The immediate trigger for the current crisis was a series of airstrikes launched by Israel targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, killing top Iranian generals and scientists. This came just after the International Atomic Energy Agency censured Iran for failing to cooperate with nuclear inspections. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared Israel’s attack an act of war, vowing that Tel Aviv would “not remain unscathed.” The tit-for-tat strikes since have claimed hundreds of lives.
A Widening Global Rift
While the conflict remains militarily bilateral, the political and strategic stakes are global. The United States, although not directly involved in initiating the strikes, has provided Israel with military support to intercept Iranian missiles, further entangling Washington in the conflict. President Trump, seeking to avoid full-scale war involvement, continues to walk a tightrope between backing an ally and avoiding deeper regional entanglement while warning Tehran to “make a deal before there is nothing left,” signaling America’s thinly veiled readiness to escalate if provoked.
Meanwhile, China has stepped in with strong condemnations of Israel’s actions, expressing support for Iran’s sovereignty and offering to mediate. India has called for de-escalation, maintaining its strategic neutrality. The UK has deployed assets to the region as a precaution, while Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s aggression in rare alignment with Tehran. Russia has also voiced opposition, complicating an already tangled web of alliances and rivalries.
The diplomatic divide is deepening, and the world is dangerously close to witnessing a broader regional conflict that could pull in multiple powers, either through defense treaties, economic dependencies, or proxy alignments.
Global Economic Fallout: An Oil Shock in the Making
Perhaps the most immediate and visible consequence of the conflict is the effect on global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz through which one-third of the world’s seaborne oil passes now faces serious disruption. Already, Brent crude prices have spiked by nearly 7% to over $74 per barrel, and analysts warn prices could exceed $100 if the conflict worsens or if Iran moves to close the strait.
This matters to the entire world, but to Sri Lanka, the impact is existential.
Sri Lanka’s Fragile Recovery at Risk
Still recovering from its worst economic crisis in decades, Sri Lanka faces a perilous new challenge. As a country that imports nearly all of its fuel, any increase in global oil prices will push up domestic costs, deplete scarce foreign reserves, and fuel inflation. Public transport, power generation, and agricultural production already under strain will suffer acutely.
High shipping and insurance costs due to threatened maritime routes (via the Red Sea and Suez Canal) will also add to import and export burdens. Sri Lanka’s apparel and tea exports will become less competitive, and delayed shipments will affect global buyers. The tourism sector, on a path to recovery and crucial for generating foreign currency, could take a hit as geopolitical tensions deter international travel.
Remittances, another economic lifeline, are at risk too. Many Sri Lankan migrant workers are based in Middle Eastern countries. Any prolonged conflict may destabilize host nations’ economies, leading to job losses and mass repatriation—threatening the livelihood of thousands of families and reducing a vital source of foreign exchange.
National Security and Strategic Dilemmas
Beyond the economic lens, the conflict poses significant security implications. Sri Lanka’s historic non-aligned position is under pressure, as global powers demand clearer stances. Any perceived alignment could have repercussions for trade, diplomatic support, or foreign investment.
Additionally, the conflict raises fears of ideological radicalization. Sri Lanka, having faced violent extremism in the past, must now be wary of imported ideologies inflamed by sectarian narratives emerging from this war.
Heightened naval presence in the Indian Ocean, crucial for Sri Lanka’s maritime trade, could complicate commercial shipping and require increased security expenditures,a cost the debt-laden government can scarcely afford.
A Dangerous Turning Point for the World
This war has no clear exit. Iran is seeking justice for the deaths of its top military leaders; Israel is determined to eliminate what it sees as a mortal threat. Negotiations are on hold, and with mounting casualties on both sides, tempers are flaring. A diplomatic solution is still possiblebut requires immense international effort, restraint, and compromise, which seem in short supply.
As the flames of war engulf the heart of the Middle East, the message for the world is clear: in an interconnected global system, no country remains untouched. The cost of conflict is always highest for those least able to bear it.
For Sri Lanka, the lesson is urgent. Preparing for fuel shocks, safeguarding remittance channels, protecting trade routes, and maintaining internal harmony must become immediate national priorities. Diplomacy and resilience not weapons must be the tools to navigate this turbulent chapter.
No Winners in War
What is unfolding in the Middle East is not just a regional war; it is the symptom of deeper unresolved tensions of nuclear fears, regional rivalries, and superpower competition. The world is once again reminded that in an age of interconnected economies and globalized supply chains, no nation is truly distant from conflict.
For Sri Lanka, the Iran-Israel war is not a spectator event. It is a crisis that could derail its fragile economic recovery, fuel social unrest, and threaten its national security. While it cannot influence the actions of global powers, Sri Lanka must urgently prepare by building energy reserves, securing alternative supply routes, and bolstering maritime and cyber security.
The lessons of history are clear: war may serve political ends in the short term, but its human and economic costs are enduring. Killing people does not bring peace. In the end, it is diplomacy not destruction that builds nations and safeguards futures.
War does not determine who is right—only who is left.
