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DCS survey reveals profound impact of economic crisis on household finances

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Colombo (LNW): The recent economic crisis has significantly affected both income and expenditure for households, a recent survey undertaken by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) disclosed.

Titled “Household Survey on Impact of Economic Crisis – 2023,” the study highlights the challenges faced by households, prompting strategic adjustments and coping mechanisms.

The survey indicates that 60.5 per cent of households reported a decrease in total income, while 5.6 per cent experienced an increase, and 33.9 per cent saw no change despite the crisis.

In response to income decline, 6.6 per cent turned to secondary jobs or additional income sources, while 73.6 per cent did not adopt specific coping strategies.

Household expenditure also underwent changes, with 3.6 per cent reporting a decrease, 91.1 per cent indicating an increase, and 5.3 per cent noting no change.

Reasons for decreased monthly expenditure were diverse, with 77.0 per cent aligning expenses with reduced income.

Among those reporting increased monthly expenditure, 99.1 per cent cited rising food expenses as a significant factor.

Additionally, 97.2 per cent of households employed at least one coping strategy to manage their expenditure.

The economic crisis, considered one of the most challenging in Sri Lanka since Independence, was initiated by the Easter Sunday attacks in 2019 and exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequently by the failed administration.

Despite government measures to stabilise the situation, the tangible impact on households underscores the severity of the crisis.

Sri Lankan families faced challenges in managing daily activities, including income constraints, meeting commitments, and ensuring the well-being of family members.

Read the full report: http://www.statistics.gov.lk/WebReleases/HECS_Bulletin_Final

Sri Lanka Original Narrative Summary: 29/12

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  1. Chamber of Construction Industry Secretary General Nissanka N Wijeratne warns of collapse of the Construction industry due to the increase of VAT from 15% to 18% from 1st Jan’24: says the contraction of the sector from Jun’20 up to now is about 50%.
  2. Jaffna District MP C V Wigneswaran says he is willing to contest the Presidential election next year, if all Tamil political parties reach a consensus on his candidature.
  3. President Ranil Wickremesinghe appoints Justice W M N P Iddawala as the Chairman of the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption: also appoints Chethiya Goonesekera & K. Bernard Rajapakse as the other members with effect from 1st Jan’24.
  4. Police say its Illegal Assets and Property Investigation Division has seized a house in Ja-Ela, land and a vehicle worth over Rs.55 million belonging to underworld member “Mattakuliye Kudu Roshan”.
  5. Finance Ministry says the 7.5% Ports and Airports Development Levy will be removed for fuel when the 18% VAT comes into effect: also says PAL will be removed from domestic LP Gas.
  6. Export Development Board says Merchandise Exports increased by 4.4% to USD 968.8 million in Nov’23 compared to Oct’23, but 2.67% lower from a year ago.
  7. Electricity Consumers’ Assn says the Public Utilities Commission should find out the cause of the power outage that occurred across the island on 9th Dec’23 and take appropriate action without waiting for the CEB to find out and inform them: refutes statement made by PUC Chairman Professor M A R M Fernando that the CEB had accepted responsibility for the power outage.
  8. Central Bank data reveals that the Western, North Western and Central Provinces continue to lead in empowering the country’s GDP: Western Province increases its share in nominal GDP to 43.4%.
  9. Department of Census and Statistics survey shows that the economic crisis is bearing on people: also shows 60.5% of households find their monthly average incomes reduced, while 91.0% of households experience an increase in their monthly expenditure levels: traces back origin of the crisis to the 2019 Easter Sunday attack which had been exacerbated by the Pandemic.
  10. Senior Lecturer and Spokesperson of the Federation of University Teachers’ Associations Senior Lecturer Charudaththe Illangasinghe says over 800 university lecturers have left SL this year: also says nearly 1,000 more are overseas “on leave”: adds that as a result academic activities at universities have been severely affected: laments the recruitment of new lecturers has come to a stop at present.

Gold prices stabilise as US bond yields offset expectations of fed rate cuts

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Colombo (LNW): Gold prices stabilised on Thursday (28), relinquishing earlier gains that marked a more than three-week high.

The rise in U.S. bond yields countered support stemming from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts early next year.

At 9:35 a.m. ET (1435 GMT), spot gold edged down 0.2 per cent to $2,072.79 per ounce, following an earlier peak at $2,088.29, the highest since December 4, when gold achieved its all-time peak.

Simultaneously, U.S. gold futures dropped 0.5 per cent to $2,082.60.

Chris Gaffney, President of World Markets at EverBank, said, “There’s not a lot of trading volume right now in any of the markets, so that usually causes smaller moves, especially when we’re approaching a big number like an all-time high.”

While the dollar index lingered near a five-month low, poised for a yearly decline, benchmark 10-year bond yields increased, yet remained close to their lowest levels since July.

The rise in Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits indicated a cooling labour market in the fourth quarter.

Investors, anticipating an 87 per cent chance of a Fed rate cut in March according to the CME FedWatch tool, continue to factor in lower interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo anticipates higher gold prices over the next year, driven by weaker U.S. economic data and lower inflation, prompting the Fed to cut rates.

In physical markets, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong increased by about 37 per cent in November compared to the previous month.

Spot silver declined 0.6 per cent to $24.094 per ounce but was set to close the year about 1 per cent higher.

Platinum advanced 0.3 per cent to a more than six-month high of $999.33, while palladium retreated 1.2 per cent to $1,139.85. Both autocatalytic metals were on track for yearly declines.

Today’s (Dec 29) weather: Showery routine to further continue

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By: Isuru Parakrama

Colombo (LNW): Showers or thunder showers will occur at times in Eastern and Uva provinces, with several spells of showers being expected in Northern, North-central provinces and in Matale, Nuwara-Eliya and Hambanthota districts, the Department of Meteorology said in its daily weather forecast today (29).

Fairly heavy showers above 50 mm are likely at some places in Ampara and Batticaloa districts, and showers or thundershowers may occur at several places elsewhere of the island after 2.00 p.m, the statement added.

Fairly strong winds about (30-40) kmph can be expected at times in Eastern slopes of the Central hills and in Northern, North-Central, North-western, Eastern, Uva and Southern provinces.

Misty conditions can be expected at some places in Central, Sabaragamuwa and Western provinces and in Galle and Matara districts during the morning.

The public is kindly requested to take adequate precautions to minimise damages caused by temporary localised strong winds and lightning during thundershowers.

Marine Weather:

Condition of Rain:
Showers or thundershowers will occur at times in the sea areas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Batticaloa and Pottuvil. Showers or thundershowers may occur at a few places in other sea areas around the island during the afternoon or night.
Winds:
Winds will be easterly to north-easterly and wind speed will be (25-35) kmph. Wind speed may increase up to (50-55) kmph at times in the sea areas off the coast extending from Colombo to Kankasanthurai via Puttalam and Mannar. Wind speed may increase up to (40-50) kmph in the sea areas off the coast extending from Kankasanthurai to Galle via Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Pottuvil and Hambantota.
State of Sea:
The sea areas off the coast extending from Colombo to Kankasanthurai via Puttalam and Mannar will be rough at times. The sea areas off the coast extending Kankasanthurai to Galle via Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Pottuvil and Hambantota will be fairly rough at times. Temporarily strong gusty winds and very rough seas can be expected during thundershowers.

Antwerp Governor Commends SL’s Initiatives to Tackle Climate Change

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Governor of Antwerp, Belgium Cathy Berx, and Head of Mission to the European Union for Sri Lanka Ambassador Grace Asirwatham, engaged in a discussion on the efforts taken to combat climate change by both national and international stakeholders. The meeting took place at the Governor’s office on 21 December 2023 in Antwerp. The Ambassador was accompanied by the Honorary Consul of Sri Lanka in Antwerp Monique De Deker, and Second Secretary of the Embassy of Sri Lanka Dulmini Dahanayake.

Governor Berx highlighted Antwerp’s recognized environmental consciousness within Belgium, citing its strategic position and commitment to sustainable practices. She underscored the significance of Antwerp as a hub for sustainability initiatives, emphasizing its role in shaping Belgium’s broader environmental agenda.

Ambassador Asirwatham provided insights into Sri Lanka’s Climate Prosperity Plan, designed with a primary focus on achieving sustainable economic growth through climate resilience. The Ambassador added that the plan sets strategic aims, including transforming Sri Lanka into a low-carbon hub and elevating renewable energy generation from 35% to 70% by 2030, aligning with the Paris Agreement’s goals to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Furthermore, the Ambassador shared Sri Lanka’s ambitious proposal to establish an International Climate Change University, promoting global collaboration in climate-related research and technologies for the collective benefit of humanity.

Governor Berx commended Sri Lanka’s commitment to sustainable practices and its notable achievements in combating climate change. She expressed admiration for Sri Lanka’s holistic approach, which encompasses renewable energy targets and innovative strategies to reduce carbon emissions across various sectors. Governor Berx acknowledged Sri Lanka’s active participation and valuable contributions to global climate initiatives.

The meeting also served as an occasion for the Governor to bid farewell to Ambassador Asirwatham. The Governor expressed appreciation for the Ambassador’s significant role in strengthening the ties between the Embassy of Sri Lanka and the city of Antwerp, which is the principal port city in Belgium.

A Political Solution in the New Year

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Addressing a gathering of religious leaders by Religions for Peace International and its Sri Lankan chapter on December 19, former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga said that the majority of people do not want another conflict even though politicians cannot resist using the ethnic card.  She insisted the Sri Lankan people were not racist but were provoked by politicians.   She said that public opinion had turned favourable for a political solution based on inter-ethnic power sharing and devolution of power to the provincial level from 23 percent to 68 percent in a matter of two years.  The National Peace Council believes that the present time is opportune for a breakthrough to a political solution.  We recall President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s pledge a year ago that he would ensure a political solution in Sri Lanka’s 75th year of Independence, which is now in its 11th month.  We are pleased that the cabinet has approved two major pieces of legislation to establish a Commission for Truth, Harmony and Reconciliation of Sri Lanka and also to legally establish an Office for National Unity and Reconciliation. These are to be published as government gazette notifications to enable the general public and all interested parties to further submit opinions and proposals in this regard.

The civil society initiative undertaken by the Association of War Affected Women in bringing together an active section of the Tamil Diaspora along with a section of senior Buddhist monks is another positive development that can lay the groundwork for a political solution.  NPC sees this civil society initiative as a first step in bridging the divide between its extremes which can give rise to wider dialogue and deeper understanding.  We are pleased that the Diaspora members and Buddhist monks were able to agree on a joint set of principles necessary to resolve the conflict in an equitable and sustainable manner.  This set of principles was also shared with politicians in parliament and with all major religious clergy and met with their general consent which was also welcomed by members of the diplomatic community as they are universal values demonstrating equality and equity among communities.  There are some who oppose this initiative.  The National Peace Council calls on those holding opposing viewpoints to find ways and means of consolidating it for the common good of the country rather than focusing on their parochial and narrow political interests.

However, we note that on the ground, the large military presence in the North and East even nearly 15 years after the end of the war, and associated surveillance of the security arms of the state, cause unease among the people.   We also note issues of land being claimed for religious and farming reasons by those from outside the Northern and Eastern provinces, which is to the detriment of the people at the ground level.  As a priority the people need a government they can trust, one that will safeguard their land and ensure their personal safety and provide for them a government administration where they could use their language, freely. The provincial councils were meant to do this, and we call on the government to hold those elections without further delay so that people at the provincial level will be governed by those they voted for. As another year ends, a new one begins, we call on the government to address these problems on the ground and instill confidence in the people of the north and east that their economic and justice concerns will be met as an equal people of Sri Lanka.

National Peace Council of Sri Lanka

Architect of the Modern EU, ex European Commission President Jacques Delors dies aged 98

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World (LNW): Jacques Delors, the esteemed former President of the European Commission, often credited as the visionary behind the modern European Union, has died at the age of 98, his daughter confirms.

Serving from 1985 to 1995, Delors played a pivotal role in shaping the EU, contributing to the creation of the single market, which facilitated the free movement of people, goods, and services within the bloc.

Additionally, he laid the groundwork for the single European currency, the euro.

Despite his significant contributions, Delors faced scepticism, particularly in the UK, where he was viewed as a symbol of Brussels interference.

Delors’ daughter, Martine Aubry, confirmed his peaceful passing in his Paris home on Wednesday morning.

French President Emmanuel Macron hailed Delors as a “statesman with a French destiny” and a tireless contributor to the European project.

Ursula von der Leyen, the current President of the European Commission, described Delors as a “visionary who made our Europe stronger,” while European Council President Charles Michel remembered him as a “great Frenchman and a great European.”

Delors’ legacy extends beyond the single market and the euro; he also championed initiatives such as the Schengen agreement for travel and the Erasmus programme for student exchanges.

Despite clashes with UK leaders like Margaret Thatcher, Delors remained committed to post-war European integration, leaving an indelible mark on the history of the European Union.

First Bulgarian charter flight with 300 travellers arrives at MRIA for Winter season

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By: Staff Writer

Colombo (LNW): The first Bulgarian charter flight for the Winter 2023/24 season has arrived at the Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport (MRIA). Aitken Spence Travels said.

Operated by ‘Bulgaria Air,’ the flight brought over 200 enthusiastic holidaymakers eager to explore the wonders of Sri Lanka.

Throughout their stay, the visitors will embark on round tours, immersing themselves in the rich culture and breathtaking landscapes that Sri Lanka has to offer.

The itinerary includes visits to Kandy city, the cultural triangle, Pinnawela, the hill country, and concludes with guests enjoying the golden sandy beaches of the southern coast.

Guest accommodation ranges from luxurious 4 and 5 star properties to charming boutique establishments on the southern belt,a high official of Aitken Spence Travels revealed.

Aitken Spence Travels established a strategic partnership with one of Bulgaria’s leading tour operators to ensure the successful execution of this charter operation.

The collaboration involved extensive efforts, including sales calls, and comprehensive education initiatives for tour operators, aimed at promoting destination Sri Lanka as an exotic diversified holiday location.

The confidence gained from a previous charter operated earlier in the year reinforced the commitment of all parties involved.

Expressing confidence in Aitken Spence Travels, the Bulgarian tour operator said: “We witnessed the seamless handling of the first charter in March 2023, and we were eager to enhance our promotion of Sri Lanka.

We are certain that our guests will experience the beauty of your country, and we trust that everything will be expertly managed.

We wish to thank Aitken Spence Travels for conducting the sales calls and educational sessions to educate our agents and the market on your beautiful island.”

Aitken Spence Plc Jt. Deputy Chairperson and Jt. Deputy Managing Director Stasshani Jayawardena said: “We are delighted to tap into this emerging source markets and be able to operate charters to grow visitor numbers.

This shows our partner’s confidence in our quality of service and the destination to commit towards this charter operation commencing in December.”

Aitken Spence Travels, Managing Director, Nalin Jayasundera said: “Bulgaria is not a traditional source market for Sri Lanka and has generated around 1400 tourist in total (November SLTDA report). It is good to have visitors from an emerging market enjoying the diversity of Sri Lanka.”

“According to the SLTDA November 2023 report 32% of tourists that arrived in Sri Lanka journeyed through a transit airport. However, if the number of direct flights or charter flights grow, visitors can reach the destination with ease and have pleasant memories.

This emphasises the significance of air transportation and connectivity facilitating tourism numbers to the country.

Air connectivity plays a significant role in catering to a substantial portion of visitor arrivals and charter flights help build visitor confidence to the country,” Jayasundera added.

Govt establishes cash buffer to mitigate reliance on market funding

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By: Staff Writer

Colombo (LNW): In another positive development, the government has established a cash buffer, enabling a reduction in its dependence on the market for weekly funding through Treasury bills and bonds.

This newfound flexibility empowers the government to strategically determine the amount to raise from the market.

Stating as to why the Central Bank, on behalf of the government, raises less than what it offers via bill and bond auctions, Central Bank Governor. Nandalal Weerasinghe said it is because now the government has relatively more flexibility over its finances, due to enhanced revenue flows.

“The government has built up this buffer for them to be able to make short-term debt service payments,” Weerasinghe said.

It appears that the higher revenues made via raising taxes since last year and cutting expenditures have given the Treasury more room to determine how much to raise via bill and bond auctions and at what rates.

Further, the government also appears to have cut its reliance on overdrafts from state banks for its urgent short-term funding needs.

The continuous dependence of the government on funds from the state banks has significantly burdened the latter’s balance sheets over an extended period.

As a result of enhanced inflows and the implementation of rigorous fiscal and structural reforms, the government has successfully transformed its overdrafts with banks into positive cash balances.

“Without relying on overdraft facilities from the two state banks, the government instead has deposits now. That I think is a good development,” Weerasinghe said.

Improved fiscal conditions and the large amounts already received and slated to receive from multilateral agencies for budget support are expected to further bring down the requirement for funds for the government from the market.

This in turn would leave more money available for the private sector, thereby helping to quicken the ease in yields and the interest rates in the weeks and months to come, helping to relax the financial conditions further.

The Government’s key medium-term fiscal objectives are targeting the restoration of fiscal discipline mainly through revenue based fiscal consolidation and expenditure management while ensuring the well-beingof the most marginalized and vulnerable segments of society and maintaining high quality capital expenditure to support long term growth.

The government is fully committed to achieving fiscal targets outlined in line with the economic reform programme supported by the IMF-EFF programme.

Local digital lending user base witnesses 125-fold growth in two years

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By: Staff Writer

Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka has witnessed a substantial increase in the user base for online loan applications across leading lending applications, Robocash, a leading legal and authorised online lender, revealed.

From a modest 10,600 in August 2021, the user base for online loan applications in Sri Lanka skyrocketed to 1.3 million by November 2023.

This is an exponential 125-fold surge in just over two years. “With an average monthly growth rate of 19.5 percent, this market exhibited rapid attraction of its target audience, showcasing consistent exponential growth without significant turning points,” Robocash said.

The online lender highlighted that these digital lending applications redefine convenience and speed in accessing financial services. Some apps boast lightning-fast approval times, offering innovative features and promising fund disbursement within minutes of application submission.

Others prioritise security through advanced fraud detection mechanisms, leveraging over 1,000 data points for risk mitigation.

Moreover, unique solutions like income diversification options are reshaping the lending landscape.

The growing popularity of these apps is propelled by their accessibility and inclusivity.

They empower users by providing immediate access to crucial financial information, interest rates and terms, allowing swift and informed decision-making without external consultations.

This accessibility has widened the lending landscape, extending financial solutions to underserved segments such as small farmers, women entrepreneurs and rural households.

Responding to regulatory gaps, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka plans to create a Credit Regulatory Authority, which aims to enhance oversight for credit firms, including digital lenders, improving industry practices.

“The growth of digital lending users is a reflection of increased trust in these types of services as a means to provide formal credit to the underserved,” said Robocash Sri Lanka Country Manager Konstantin Bereutsyn, commenting on the research.

He further echoed the reminder from the Digital Alternative Lending Association (DALA), of which Robocash is a member, for customers to solely engage with legitimate financial institutions for secure and ethical transactions.

Increased investment in technology by banks and financial institutions has placed the global Fintech industry at a value of over US$ 5,500 billion.

The industry’s growth shows no sign of retardation with the maturing of new technologies such as Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) and Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Further, the advancement of Blockchain technology in recent years has led to increasing popularity in Fintech’s latest development.

Dan Schulman, the Chief Executive Officer of PayPal anticipates digital currencies being the medium of everyday payments in the near future.

People are pushed to use a ‘contactless’ form of exchange due to the safety protocols in place courtesy of the global pandemic.

Despite holding a firm place in the future of the global banking sector, Central Bank believes that there are still unresolved issues for digital currencies.