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Trade Unions to launch protest at Colombo Fort

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By: suru Parakrama

Colombo (LNW): A joint protest will be held at Colombo Fort this (04) afternoon, correspondents said.

The protest based on five demands will be organised by representatives of 47 trade unions as the Professional Trade Union Collective.

The protest will be held in front of the Colombo Fort Railway station at noon, according to Prasanna Kalutarage, Chairman of the Sri Lanka Free Employees Association.

The protesters’ demands include the the government’s tax policy, controversial ‘Anti-Terrorism Bill’ and the ongoing oppression of trade unions.

Meanwhile, the Federation of University Teachers’ Association (FUTA) stated that the trade unions will protest against the government’s unfair legislation and actions.

ComBank launches two platforms to link local businesses to global markets

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By: Staff Writer

Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka’s Business enterprises have been offered opportunities to establish contacts with their counterparts in overseas via two new palt forms unveiled by the Commercial Bank.

The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has significantly expanded trade opportunities for its business clients through the launch of two new platforms, one in collaboration with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the other developed independently.

While both platforms are designed as ecosystems that create networking prospects across borders and within the country, ‘Commercial Bank LEAP’ developed with support from the IFC, is a comprehensive business ecosystem that will focus on elevating businesses through digitizing enterprises, and ‘Trade Club’ the Bank’s own platform, is designed to empower importers and exporters by providing them easy access to the Bank’s trade services.

Commenting on the development of these platforms, Commercial Bank Managing Director/CEO Sanath Manatunge said: “Supporting and empowering local businesses to grow and conquer global markets has been more than just a business goal for Commercial Bank.

With the launch of these two platforms, Commercial Bank is taking its support for SMEs and corporates to the next level by offering them access to global networks, cutting-edge technology, and a wide range of business services that will help them stay competitive in today’s rapidly evolving business landscape.”

Via Commercial Bank LEAP which is built in compliance with international standards and is powered by GlobalLinker, an international business enabling platform, SMEs and the Bank’s corporate customers will be able to create online stores for free to sell their products and services.

It will help business enterprises to expand their network of customers, investors, and suppliers from across the world, improve business networking, tap overseas markets, access exclusive offers and benefits from partners, attract feasible business opportunities, and get discovered by a wider audience.

As it is a secure platform for communication, it is also feasible for sharing ideas, collaborations and learning, the Bank said.

Developed as a sustainable business model, Commercial Bank LEAP offers a range of business services, such as legal, financial, marketing, logistics and shipping services, and provides businesses with access to various business intelligence tools.

These tools provide valuable insights by enabling entrepreneurs to analyse their performance, track their sales and marketing activities, and monitor their online reputation.

Commercial Bank LEAP is designed to help businesses to grow, connect across the world, and collaborate in a safer and secure environment, the Bank said.

Commercial Bank Trade Club also offers a range of benefits to its members in addition to the networking opportunities and knowledge sharing sessions.

Some of the benefits that members can enjoy include easy access to Commercial Bank LEAP, as well as to a team of dedicated professionals for consultancy services and financial advisory, same-day dispatch of export collection bills, free registration for online banking and mobile banking.

They will be provided with preferential rates on finances, attractive exchange rates on export-related transactions, foreign currency issuance at attractive rates for business tours, seminars, and trade fairs, and a concession for letter of credit advising charges, among others.

State-run gas vendor LITRO announces revised prices

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By: Isuru Parakrama

Colombo (LNW): State-run LP gas distributor LITRO has announced the revised prices for domestic gas cylinders.

Accordingly;

  • The price of a 12.5 kg domestic gas cylinder will be slashed by Rs. 1,005. The new price is Rs. 3,738.
  • The price of a 5 kg gas cylinder will be slashed by Rs. 402, and the new price will be Rs. 1,502.
  • The price of a 2.5 kg cylinder will be slashed by Rs. 183, and the new price Rs. 700.

These price revisions will be in effect from midnight today (04).

SL Navy intensifies operations to crack down on the synthetic drugs

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By: Staff Writer

Colombo (LNW): The government has intensified sea surveillance directing the Sri Lanka Navy to continue major naval operations to crack down on the synthetic drugs such as amphetamine, methamphetamine and ecstasy pills which is a growing public health concern.

Amphetamine-Type Stimulant (ATS) have become the primary drug threat, displacing hitherto used drugs such as heroin, opium or cannabis in Sri Lanka, with a growing number of ATS users requiring treatment services.

The seizure of crystal methamphetamine or ‘meth’ off the coast of Sri Lanka during the past tow years indicates shift in the modus operandi of international drug trafficking syndicates in the region.

. Isolated instances of illicit methamphetamine manufacture and trafficking underscore the need for increasing the awareness of law enforcement agencies about this important issue.

Sri Lanka is also a transit point for drug trafficking as traffickers act as couriers of drugs from Pakistan and India to Europe and the West through Colombo ad Male.

In a special search operation conducted in the Sand Dune Sea area of Talaimannar, the Sri Lanka Navy has recovered over 04 kg (wet weight) of Crystal Methamphetamine, also known as Crystal Meth or ICE, adrift in waters.

The special operation was mounted by SLNS Thammanna in the North Central Naval Command in the Sand Dune Sea area on Sunday (02).

The naval personnel engaged in this operation recovered a suspicious sack adrift in waters and the drugs weighing about 04kg and 500g (wet weight) were found in 04 packages which had been stuffed in the sack.

The seizure of 04 kg of crystal methamphetamine or ‘meth’ off the coast of Sri Lanka indicates shift in the modus operandi of international drug trafficking syndicates in the region. Previous drug seizures had heroin as the main component

The Navy suspects that the smugglers might have abandoned the drugs, unable to fetch them ashore, due to constant naval operations in the area. The gross street value of drugs is believed to be over Rs. 67.5 million.

The seized packages of Crystal Methamphetamine have been kept in the naval custody until they are handed over to authorities for onward legal action, the navy said.

A special operation carried out by the Navy in the seas off Negombo (04th January 2021) led to the apprehension of 04 suspects with over 100kg of Crystal Methamphetamine (ICE) and about 80kg of Hashish and seizure of a multi day fishing trawler used to transfer the narcotic substances.

Dedicated data collection mechanisms on this important issue are still absent in most countries in the South Asian region and even where such mechanisms exist, they may not have the capacity to differentiate between various synthetic drugs.

There is also a need to further improve forensic information which can provide important insights into the origin of synthetic drugs. These are areas that deserve further action by the governments concerned, with possible support from the international community.

Indo Sri Lanka Navies begin Annual Maritime Exercise SLINEX-2023

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By: Staff Writer

Colombo (LNW): The Tenth edition of the India-Sri Lanka bilateral maritime exercise SLINEX is underway at Visakhapatnam with an aim to enhance interoperability and improve mutual understanding between the navies of the two neighboring countries in the strategically significant Indian Ocean Region.

SLINEX (Sri Lanka–India Naval Exercise) is being conducted in two phases. The first one, the harbour phase at Visakhapatnam on March 7 and 8, followed by the sea phase on March 9 and 10 in the Bay of Bengal.

The 10th Edition of annual Indian Navy–Sri Lanka Navy bilateral maritime Exercise SLINEX-2023 is scheduled in Colombo from 3-8 April 2023.

The Exercise is being conducted in two phases; the Harbour Phase in Colombo from 3-5 April followed by Sea Phase from 6-8 April, off Colombo.

The Indian Navy will be represented by INS Kiltan (Advanced Anti Submarine Warfare Corvette) and INS Savitri (Offshore Patrol Vessel) while Sri Lanka Navy will have SLNS Gajabahu (Advance Offshore Patrol Vessel) and SLNS Sagara (OPV).

In addition, Indian Navy Chetak helicopter and Dornier Maritime Patrol Aircraft along with Sri Lanka Air Force Dornier and BEL 412 helicopters would also participate in the Exercise. The Exercise will also feature the Special Forces of the two Navies. The previous edition of SLINEX was conducted in Visakhapatnam from 7-12 March 2022.

SLINEX-2023 aims to enhance interoperability, improve mutual understanding and exchange best practices/ procedures in multi-faceted Maritime operations between both Navies.

The Harbour Phase would include sports fixtures, yoga session and cultural events which would provide an opportunity for personnel from both Navies to learn from each other, reinforce shared values and build bonds of friendship and camaraderie.

VAdm Priyantha Perera, Commander of Sri Lanka Navy along with Mr Vinod K. Jacob, Deputy High Commissioner, took part in the opening of SLINEX-2023 on 3 April 2023. H.E. Gopal Baglay, High Commissioner of India is scheduled to host the visit of Hon. Premitha Bandara Tennakoon, State Minister of Defence onboard the indigenous Indian Naval ships.

In order to create awareness and interest towards the Armed Forces both the Indian Naval ships will be kept open for a large number of visitors including school children.

A Coordinated Indian Navy-Sri Lanka Navy Band/Cultural Performance in collaboration with Swami Vivekananda Cultural Centre will be organized for the public at Dutch Hospital and Viharmahadevi Park on 3 and 5 April 2023 respectively.

Harbour training activities, SME interaction and training at HARD simulator will also be progressed during SLINEX 23.

Election Commission to meet today, decision to be made on LG Polls

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By: Isuru Parakrama

Colombo (LNW): Any further decision on the holding of the Local Government Election will be made after the discussion with Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, the Election Commission announced.

The Commission made request to meet with the Prime Minister to discuss the matter, and hopefully the discussion will be held this week, said Commission Chief Nimal Punchihewa.

He added that if the necessary funds are released, the postal voting for the LG Polls can be held on April 25.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission is set to meet today (04).

Showers above 75mm likely to occur in several provinces

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By: Isuru Parakrama

Colombo (LNW): Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places over most parts of the country during the afternoon or night, and fairly heavy showers above 75mm are likely at some places in Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and North-Central provinces and in Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts, announced the Department of Meteorology said in a statement today (04).

The coastal areas from Puttalam to Matara via Colombo and Galle will experience showers or thundershowers in the morning as well.

General public is kindly requested to take adequate precautions to minimise damages caused by temporary localised strong winds and lightning during thundershowers.

Marine Weather:

Condition of Rain:
Showers or thunder showers will occur at several places in the sea areas off the coast extending from Mannar to Matara via Puttalam, Colombo and Galle and in the sea areas off the coast extending from Pottuvil to Trincomalee via Batticaloa.
Winds:
Winds will be south-easterly to south-westerly and wind speed will be (20-30) kmph.
State of Sea:
The sea areas around the island will be slight. Temporarily strong gusty winds and very rough seas can be expected during thundershowers.

LITRO to slash gas prices from midnight today

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By: Isuru Parakrama

Colombo (LNW): The prices of domestic LP gas cylinders will be slashed from midnight today (04), announced the state-run gas distributor LITRO.

Accordingly, the price of a 12.5kg domestic gas cylinder will be slashed by about Rs. 1000, said Company Chief Muditha Peiris.

The revised prices will be announced this noon.

President says key points of IMF agreement will be passed into law, if approved in Parliament

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Colombo (LNW): President Ranil Wickremesinghe announced that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be presented to Parliament for a vote on whether to support it. Following this, the key points of the agreement would be enacted into law. The President also indicated that the Prevention of Terrorism Bill, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and the Anti-Corruption Bill would be submitted to Parliament by June. He shared these updates with university professors and heads of economic departments as part of a discussion about the IMF program at the Ministry of Finance Auditorium yesterday (02).

During the same discussion, President Ranil Wickremesinghe also urged universities to send ten of their most talented economics students to engage with government officials and provide their opinions on the International Monetary Fund program. He also proposed that a group of students be awarded scholarships to attend recognized foreign universities.

The President highlighted the need for automation in production and services in order for the country to remain competitive with nations like India and Bangladesh. He emphasized that the education system must be reformed to achieve this goal. However, he made it clear that he did not intend to approach the International Monetary Fund for the 18th time.

At the meeting, the President was joined by State Ministers of Finance, the Governor of the Central Bank, the Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Vice-Chancellors of universities, and lecturers from economic departments. They all shared their thoughts on the IMF program, and their opinions and responses are as follows;

President Ranil Wickremesinghe,

First and foremost, it is anticipated that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be presented to Parliament for a vote on whether or not to support it. We encourage everyone to take a stance on this matter. We propose to support the program, but understand that some may wish to remain neutral. In addition, the main points of the IMF agreement will be enacted into law, and any necessary changes will be presented to Parliament. We aim to present the basic aspects of the agreement in May, with information about the program being disseminated to rural sectors after the New Year.

Secondly, we plan to introduce our programs, including the green economy. However, we first need to assess the response to these programs. The anti-corruption law will be out very soon, maybe by May. There are three important bills that are coming out, Anti-terrorism Bill, Truth and Reconciliation Commission and Anti-Corruption. The Minister of Justice and the Chief Justice has asked that all three bills not be brought together because it is difficult for the Supreme Court to go into it and there will be a shortage of lawyers. Therefore, one bill will come out towards the end of April, followed by the other two and somewhere by June all three bills will come.

The goal of our modernization program is to enhance production while maintaining competitiveness, which will require cooperation from all sectors. To this end, we are exploring the possibility of establishing an Agricultural Technical University by merging government research institutes and other institutions. Post-graduate courses could also be established if deemed necessary. This will strengthen the research process and facilitate the incorporation of technology. Let’s unite all sectors and implement this program together.

The IMF agreement has been thoroughly reviewed, and those present are knowledgeable enough to provide further explanation. However, any proposed solutions must adhere to the framework established by the International Monetary Fund. We have been given six months to work within this framework, and it is crucial that we do so. The majority, including farmers and tourism business owners, believe that this is necessary. While trade unions argue against privatization, if one-third of the money spent on these loss-making institutions was directed towards universities and the education sector, there would be greater progress. Addressing salary issues could also be a part of this effort. Trade unions cannot dictate our policies. We cannot afford to fall behind Afghanistan again; reforms are necessary. Even the opposition acknowledges the need for reform in the country.

Despite bringing a bill and appointing a commission to create industries, we failed to advance industrialization. Our focus was on achieving peace after the war, but we still spent a significant amount of money on war efforts, especially the war from 1983-1987. Instead of industrialization, we pursued programs in the construction sector. If we had prioritized industrialization in 2009, we could have attracted a lot of investments. However, if we set conditions for foreign investors, they may not come. In fact, our local investors who have money in foreign bank accounts will be the first to invest if the situation is favourable.

During President JR Jayawardane’s tenure, the Mahaweli scheme, which was supposed to be completed in 30 years, was finished in 10 years. All institutions involved in the project were brought to Sri Lanka at the same time, which established methods of obtaining money for the people of Sri Lanka. This has led to some groups improving and investing in other projects.

Currently, people are afraid that the economy will collapse and their businesses will fail, so they keep their money in London or Dubai. It’s crucial for them to bring that money back to Sri Lanka.
We propose to select ten talented final year students studying economics in universities to participate in discussions with officials and ministers. In addition, we aim to provide four talented students with foreign scholarships to renowned universities such as Harvard, Cambridge, Oxford, and Stanford.

Minister of State for Finance, Mr. Ranjith Siyambalapitiya;

Today, I am talking to economic experts along with the President, who also studied at a Sri Lankan university. Our country has had ministers who left the cabinet when they proposed going to the International Monetary Fund in the past. Due to inflation, we had to increase bank interest rates and control imports which affected people from all levels of society. Consequently, we had to seek help from the International Monetary Fund, a decision the President had warned about twenty years ago. At that time, we were on the opposing side and went with the popular stand, but we now realize that it was a mistake. The President has announced that we will not seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund for the 18th time. We need to take responsibility for our economy, and I expect the contribution of the economic experts to achieve this goal.

Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe;

A professional-level discussion is taking place here that goes beyond the topic of trade unions. Despite having gone to the International Monetary Fund 16 times, success was not possible due to some improperly implemented conditions. Negotiations were used to increase taxes, and it is now impractical for the country to remove the agreements made. There are two ways to remove the tax package, but both require time: either collect more taxes from people or increase the government’s income and salaries. The private sector has made some changes and if successful, could provide relief in the future. However, high-income earners are the ones criticizing the situation, saying they cannot afford it for six months.

The manufacturing economy is the economic advantage a country gains by producing goods. The production of goods and services increases income from gross domestic product. Value addition in the agricultural sector can lead to significant income, as has been shown during this discussion. However, for the younger generation to turn to agriculture, it must be made more efficient. Currently, young people going abroad are not working in agriculture but in the service sector.
Although agriculture contributes only seven per cent to the economy, it employs 27 per cent of the workforce. People working in the service sector can earn income by improving agricultural production. The development of both the manufacturing and service sectors is necessary for the country’s growth.

Senior Professor Sampath Amaratunga, Chairman of the University Grants Commission

Inviting university professors to discuss the International Monetary Fund agreement is a great honour to the university system. Vice-chancellors, professors, lecturers, members of the University Grants Commission, and even young lecturers can benefit from participating in these discussions.

As a country, we are currently facing an economic crisis, and debt has been a topic of discussion for years. If there are alternative proposals or models, we should explore them. Those who oppose the current program in parliament should be asked to present an alternative model.

India recently privatized its airline, Air India, due to continuous losses. It begs the question, why should Sri Lanka keep an airline that is causing billions of losses, while India doesn’t?
To overcome the current crisis, we should study the decisions made in the 1980s and how New
Zealand managed to recover from a crisis. New Zealand implemented excellent policies to reduce the economic burden on the government and directed the private sector to do business. We should learn from their example.

Senior Professor Udith K Jayasinghe, Vice Chancellor of North West University

As a group of experts, we have prepared a policy on agri-food, using the correct scientific methods. If this policy can be implemented under a single program, a significant portion of the work can be accomplished. I believe that this will be crucial for the agreement made with the International Monetary Fund.

Professor Premakumar De Silva of the Department of Sociology at the University of Colombo –

There is a significant population of people living in rural areas of our country who are not connected to the global economy. I am interested in conducting research on these individuals. It is crucial to uplift the rural poor under the plan to develop the country. As a middle-class citizen, I am also impacted by the crisis, and we all must make some sacrifices.

Moreover, there is a substantial group of young people who are not involved in the economy, and they require professional knowledge and training. While there are several vocational training institutes in the country, their effectiveness is not widely known. We must continue on this journey with self-criticism and a willingness to improve.

Professor Shirantha Heenkenda –

It appears that the citizens of the country are still hesitant to proceed with taking out loans. As such, it is necessary to provide them with more information about the country’s development plans. We need to create confidence among the people regarding the program of developing the country through loans. If we expect people to be patient for six months, we must have faith in the tax system and ensure that there is transparency in the process.

Moreover, there needs to be a discussion about transparency in the loan process to help build trust among the people. We need to provide clear explanations about how the loans will be used to benefit the country and its citizens, which will help alleviate any fears or doubts that people may have.

Professor Priyanga Dunusinghe of the Colombo University

I appreciate your decisions regarding the country’s economy. As you rightly point out, restructuring the public sector and creating a competitive economy is crucial for our country’s economic development. However, I agree that there are also serious issues with private sector service providers in our country, and that the prices they set can have a significant impact on the economy.

In light of this, I fully agree with your request to focus on maintaining the competitiveness of the private sector and preventing market collapse. Borrowing from the International Monetary Fund is a necessary step, but we must also pay attention to finding low-cost sources of credit to minimize the burden on our economy.

As for the green economy, I believe that it is an important area for our country to focus on. We must work towards creating sustainable and environmentally friendly industries and promoting clean energy. This will not only help to protect our environment but also create new opportunities for economic growth and development.

Kelaniya University Professor Ajith Dissanayake,

The implementation of the past economy requires self-criticism. In addition, people have a negative attitude towards borrowing from the International Monetary Fund due to past experiences. The public questions the benefits of previous loans and whether they were properly invested. To address this, it is necessary to focus on creating a positive attitude towards borrowing and demonstrating the effective use of the loans for the betterment of the country.

Dr. Indrajith Aponsu – University of Colombo

I approach the debate over the International Monetary Fund from two perspectives. First, the challenges that people face as a result of IMF policies, and second, whether the IMF’s focus is on addressing our country’s long-term problems. The trade deficit, which was a major component of the balance of payments deficit, increased by more than 90 billion between 2000 and 2020. It is critical to address this issue.

Our small and medium-scale enterprises are now of high quality. They can join the value chain if we can get them to innovate and focus on exports. Tourism and remittances are important as well.

Peradeniya University Vice Chancellor Professor Mr. M. D. Lamawansa

Recognizing the challenges we face, we have made a number of decisions at the university level to reduce waste and eliminate backlogs despite staff shortages. The support provided by the staff and students to cope with this difficult period should also be appreciated. Our current emphasis is on international relations and the recruitment of international students. Currently, we have approximately 50 international students. I am hopeful that we will be able to recruit more students in the coming months.

Mr. Anas Cader, South Eastern University –

This is the first time we’ve seen a bottom-up policy approach. It is a very good initiative. We’ve all got good ideas. A good first step is to establish an institution where economic experts can develop and implement their ideas and policies.

Professor A. Rameez, from the South Eastern University

The people of the Eastern Province are optimistic that the President will do something to revitalize the country. The government was able to earn Rs. 100 billion through Payee Tax. On the other hand, losses of SriLankan Airlines and CEB cost the government around Rs. 113-117 billion in eight months. Ceylon Petroleum Corporation’s annual loss is close to Rs. 600 billion. As a result, there is an urgent need to reform all of the government’s enterprises. So, Mr. President, you’re on the right track, and I believe the people will back you up as you reform the state-owned enterprise.

Vice Chancellor of the Ruhuna University Senior Professor Sujeewa Amarasena –

I know that we are not going to have any tax concessions for the next six months and we are okay with that. But all the other academics are on trade union action believing that something will come with the trade union action. But, we know that it is not going to happen. When I asked our side, they have not had a written communication from trade union leaders that negotiations are unsuccessful. So, I think it’s good to be open and say we are not able to negotiate these proposals for six months, but we definitely promise to discuss these proposals in six months.

State Minister of Finance Shehan Semasinghe –

This was very clearly communicated that trade union actions will be discussed in six months and we have had different rounds of talks with officials and even the Presidential Secretariat. So, this has been communicated to the Trade Union Leaders but, it’s sad to see that they are just not willing to understand or they just pretend as if they don’t understand. I think that’s a sad situation. But, we will broaden the communication. Also, if these trade union leaders don’t communicate the proper message, can they be representatives of the trade unions?

Finance Ministry Secretary Mahinda Siriwardana –

I must admit that some parts of the country’s economy have had a negative impact. Our state finances have suffered a severe collapse, and it’s clear that decades of old habits cannot be changed overnight. To remedy this, we must adopt fiscal discipline and implement tax policies. Our President has advised us to use technology to expand the tax base, which may only have a temporary effect. However, as government revenue increases, the effect of these policies will gradually fade away.

Presidential Senior Adviser on National Security and Chief of Presidential Staff Mr Sagala Ratnayake, Presidential Adviser on Economic Affairs Dr. R.H.S. Samaratunga, and a group of scholars representing the university field attended the event.

The CB’s monetary policy decision today? A rate hike or a temporary pause?

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This purpose of this article is to predict that the CB will keep policy rates unchanged at current levels of 15.5% and 16.5% at today’s Monetary Board meeting.

What should the CB really do?

In terms of the policy rates-based monetary policy model pursued solely for reducing inflation to the target of 4%-5% by contracting the economy at any cost, the CB should raise policy rates at least by another 100 bps. Key factors in this regard are as follows.

  • Central banks in advanced market economies raised rates in the third week of March on gloomy concerns over broad-based inflationary pressures, despite accelerated path of rate hikes in 2022.
  • Inflation in Sri Lanka also seems to be sticky around 50% despite the rapid hike of polcy rates so far by 1,100 bps so far since the begining of 2022. The decline in inflation March was only 0.30%, i.e., from 50.6% to 50.3%. For the first quarter 2023, it is marginal from 51.7% to 50.3%, despite the new CPI. 
  • Therefore, there is no sign of being able to get the inflation down to a single digit by the end of 2023 as the CB predicts.

What will the CB actually do?

However, unless the IMF forces to raise the policy rates as part of remaining 150 bps of the IMF recommendation, the CB will keep policy rates unchanged by stating the following reasons.

  • Disinflation is continuously taking place in response to prudent fiscal and monetary policies pursued so far.
  • Remittances have doubled in February where the overall BOP balance has reported a surplus first time after February 2020 with gross official reserve surpassing 2 bn USD first time after February 2022.
  • Rupee is appreciating and its favourable effects to lower inflation through reduced cost of imports are expected in the period ahead.
  • The economy shows strong signs of stabilization over time consequent to prudent fiscal and monetary policies, confidence boosted by the IMF programme, external funding expected and debt restructuring in progress.
  • The transmission of the monetary tightening and other policies implemented so far needs further time to impact favourably on inflation as envisaged. The favourable impact of the policy rate increase of 100 bps effected on 3 March on inflation also is also being awaited. 
  • Market interest rates led by Treasury bill yields also are seen stabilizing at favourable moderate levels as expected.
  • The cautious approach now being pursued by banks through tightening of lending standards also is expected to bring down inflation faster than envisaged where further tightening of the monetary policy may not be required at initially expected strength.
  • Therefore, disinflation is envisaged to move on a firmer path towards a single digit inflation rate by end of the year.

Concluding Remarks

  • Policy rate decision is a highly arbitrary decision with reasoning for a rate hike or cut or unchanged as the CB wishes. Nobody can prove or contradict the decision in monetary theory or statistics with certainty.
  • What ever the decision is, it will not have any effect on the prevailing level of hyper-inflation suffering the country around 50% being close to inflation of 50.5% in Turkey that has been suffering a currency crisis mostly since 2018 beause prices are the outcomes of markets that cannot be simply controlled by policy interest rates.

(This article is released in the interest of participating in the professional dialogue to find out solutions to present economic crisis confronted by the general public consequent to the global Corona pandemic, subsequent economic disruptions and shocks both local and global and policy failures.)

P Samarasiri

Former Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Sri Lanka

(Former Director of Bank Supervision, Assistant Governor, Secretary to the Monetary Board and Compliance Officer of the Central Bank, Former Chairman of the Sri Lanka Accounting and Auditing Standards Board and Credit Information Bureau, Former Chairman and Vice Chairman of the Institute of Bankers of Sri Lanka, Former Member of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Author of 10 Economics and Banking Books and a large number of articles publish. 

The author holds BA Hons in Economics from University of Colombo, MA in Economics from University of Kansas, USA, and international training exposures in economic management and financial system regulation)

Economy Forward: https://economyforward.blogspot.com/2023/04/the-cbs-monetary-policy-decision-today.html