Srilanka is to explore business opportunities in African countries, studying carefully and entering cautiously into the African continent with a total population of 1.3 billion and a combined GDP of over USD 2.6 trillion, beneficial for foreign policy makers and businessmen.

Business wise, the recent Sri Lankan Airlines direct connection to Nairobi is beneficial. It will support business relations beyond Kenya with the pan-African flight connectivity of Kenyan Airlines.

Also supporting business diplomacy are 6 Sri Lankan diplomatic missions believed to be sufficient based on trade and investment priorities in Europe and Asia.

While resource constraints suggest this limited number is understandable, it would be unfortunate if wider resident mission connectivity in Africa is perceived better left to the big guns in the global arena.

A few Sri Lankan companies have grasped opportunities in Africa. Apart from tea exporters, companies that come to mind include Neil Marine, Hela Clothing and the rapid African expansion planned by LOLC’s microfinance operation.

Sri Lankan mini hydro companies have set up projects and the African Continental Free Trade Area could benefit its manufacturing outward investors.

As part of the Foreign Ministry’s Economic Diplomacy initiative, a Business Forum to expand and intensify Sri Lanka’s presence in the African continent was held at the Foreign Ministry this week under the patronage of Foreign Minister M.U.M. Ali Sabry.

The meeting brought together over 50 business leaders representing the sectors of apparel, pharmaceuticals, construction, finance, manufacturing, renewable energy, vessel manufacturing, logistics, FMCG, confectionery and tea along with leading Business Chambers.

The forum was a follow-up to President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s “Look Africa” orientation which was initiated during the 75th anniversary of Sri Lanka’s Independence. In parallel, the first Sri Lanka-Africa Business Forum was held on 3 February 2023 at the Foreign Ministry to coincide with the 75th Independence Day Celebrations of Sri Lanka.

Foreign Minister Ali Sabry, opening the follow-up forum, emphasized the timely nature of the Government’s policy to reinvigorate, accelerate and amplify Sri Lanka’s political and economic agenda in Africa and stressed on the importance of strategising a closer economic narrative to build synergies with countries in Africa.

The Minister further stated that Sri Lankan entrepreneurs should look at the targeted priority sectors where Sri Lankan companies have a comparative advantage.

Price Water house Coopers made a presentation on the potential sectors for Sri Lankan companies to look at gaining a foothold in the African region for a stronger economic partnership and a representative from LOLC Holdings elaborated on their success in the micro finance and financial sectors in the African region.

Africa’s Honorary Consuls based in Sri Lanka were also associated with the forum. A large number of leading business leaders and companies seeking to share and expand their experiences in the African continent were active participants.

Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Finance, or Treasury, will likely take over the USD1 billion debt that SriLankan Airlines (UL, Colombo International) owed, and the government will soon start looking for an investor for the troubled carrier, according to Sujeewa Rajapakse, chairman of the state-owned commercial bank the People’s Bank.

He provided these details without elaborating on the broader issues surrounding the country’s struggling banking sector, after the Treasury had moved to take over more than one billion dollars in debt that the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) owed to the People’s Bank.

He said that the People’s Bank had stopped lending to SriLankan Airlines but assured that the state-run flag carrier was also working to settle its loans, Sri Lanka’s Sunday Times newspaper reported, again without further elaboration.

In December 2022, it emerged that SriLankan Airlines had failed to repay installments for up to five years on loans obtained from local financial institutions dating back to 2016 and 2017. As of the end of March 2021, the total amount owed and unpaid was LKR71.62 billion rupees (USD210 million).

It has also been revealed that the carrier has an outstanding USD300 million debt to both state-owned commercial banks the Bank of Ceylon and the People’s Bank, plus USD325 million owed to both the CPC and Airport and Aviation Services Limited, the country’s state-run airport operator.

In an interview on Bloomberg TV, SriLankan Airlines CEO Richard Nuttall clarified that the company had not defaulted on any of its bank loans and had met the interest payments but had not been in a position to pay back the principle amounts – a debt the government is in the process of restructuring with the local banks.

“The government is going through a process with the IMF, they’re looking to privatize many of the state-owned enterprises, and that includes the airline, and the first step is to find a way to restructure the balance sheets. , he said.

“But that’s a work in progress and we’ll have to see what the Ministry of Finance has to say about it. But we’re part of a national restructuring of state-owned enterprises.”he added.

Quizzed about the possibility of filing for creditor protection, he responded: “There’s no equivalent of Chapter 11 in Sri Lanka at the moment, so that’s not an option.” He added: “We have an airline that brings in, in round numbers, a billion dollars in revenue a year.

Most of the traffic we bring comes to Sri Lanka, it’s critical to the Sri Lankan economy. As an airline group operation, we plan to make about USD100 million return this year, but it’s all going into servicing past debts and has very little to do with running the airline today. If we can restructure the debt, we have a very rosy future.”

The loss-making Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport (MRIA) facilitated 11,926 international tourists in February 2023 gaining air traffic momentum with the revival of tourism this year, Airport and Aviation Services (Private) Limited of Sri Lanka (AASL) announced.

The Airport has incurred a net loss of Rs 4.44 billion and the capital expenditure of Rs 36,564 million, spent for the construction of Mattala International Airport, was not used effectively.

According to the report, only 2,396 flights have been operated in the last five years and a cumulative net loss of 20,590 million rupees from 2017 to 2021, Auditor General’s recent report revealed.

While Sri Lanka’s tourism industry has recorded 107,639 international tourist arrivals in the month of February 2023 with a growth of 11.5% compared to the month of February 2022, the MRIA has facilitated 11,926 international tourists in February.

This includes 6259 arrivals and 5667 departures with over 72 international aircraft movements.Further, after 2021, the MRIA has facilitated the first flight of SCAT Airlines of Kazakhstan today (March 06) with 188 international tourists arriving in the country.

Altogether, 602 international tourists arrived in Sri Lanka through the exotic gateway on Monday, including Red Wings Airlines, a Russian regional leisure airline based in Moscow, which carried 414 international tourists onboard to the country, while 407 tourists departed on the same flight.

Meanwhile, the AASL had made all necessary arrangements to welcome the guests and facilitate smooth operations to process 1009 tourists.

If the trend continues, the year 2023 would be one of the best recovery years for Sri Lanka and tourism will support rebuilding the economy, the AASL added.

The Mattala International Airport has incurred a net loss of Rs 4.44 billion, a recent annual report by the Auditor General revealed.

According to the report, the capital expenditure of Rs 36,564 million, spent for the construction of Mattala International Airport, was not used effectively.

The Treasury paid a sum of Rs 1,708 million as loan interest from 2010 to March 2015 for the loan of USD 190 million, obtained for that construction. The report also shows that Airport and Aviation Services Limited paid a sum of Rs 3,532 million from April 2015 to March 2022.

According to the report, the loan balance was USD 109 million as of 31 December 2021.Although the Mattala International Airport’s expected annual passenger capacity is around one million, the total number of passengers who have used the airport in the last five years is 91,747, according to the Auditor General’s report.

According to the report, only 2,396 flights have been operated in the last five years.It cited that the Mattala International Airport operations resulted in a net loss of 4,440 million rupees in 2021, and a cumulative net loss of 20,590 million rupees from 2017 to 2021.

The Treasury paid a sum of Rs 1,708 million as loan interest from 2010 to March 2015 for the loan of USD 190 million, obtained for that construction. The report also shows that Airport and Aviation Services Limited paid a sum of Rs 3,532 million from April 2015 to March 2022.

According to the report, the loan balance was USD 109 million as of 31 December 2021.Although the Mattala International Airport’s expected annual passenger capacity is around one million, the total number of passengers who have used the airport in the last five years is 91,747, according to the Auditor General’s report.

By looking at the monetary policy press release issued by the Economic Research Department of the Central Bank (CB) on 3 March, I felt that the country now does not need a Monetary Board or a Central Bank if they are to implement monetary policy decisions made by the IMF staffers. Therefore, the Monetary Law Act after 72 years has now become an invalid piece of legal paper.

I further felt whether macroeconomic management policy framework of the country and its economy have now been outsourced to the IMF as our internationally trained policy economists are incompetent. In every policy action whether fiscal or monetary, we hear the policy origin as the IMF in looking for 2.9 bn. USD. Therefore, one might interpret the IMF deal as the situation of the country’s sovereignty being invaded by or rented out to the IMF by those who manage the economy.

Monetary policy decision on 3 March

The Monetary Board/CB on 3 March 2023 raised its policy interest rates by another 1% to 15.5%-16.5% band (i.e., SDFR and SLFR). Accordingly, the total rate hike from August 2021 so far is 11% whereas 9% has been effected by the present Governor since 8 April 2022. 

The CB states that such rate hikes are expected to curtail the excess demand in the economy in order to bring down inflation back to 4%-6% target in the medium-term and thereby to stabilize the economy.

Trend of inflation and recent market interest rates

However, the inflation estimated as the percentage increase in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CPI) has accelerated from 5.7% in July 2021 to 69.8% in September 2022 and decelerated thereafter to 50.6% in February 2023. The new CPI introduced from January 2023 also has statistically helped reduce inflation from 57.2% in December 2022 (based on old CPI) to 51.7% in January 2023 (based on new CPI). 

Accordingly, in view of disinflation path and projections of single digit inflation towards the end of this year, the CB commenced several strategies outside the policy rates to reduce market interest rates such as Treasury bill yields and inter-bank rates. 

In fact, some media saw recent decline in Treasury bill yields as a healthy sign of gaining economic stability back and spread expectations of rate cuts by the CB in the near future. The CB also expressed hopes of market interest rates coming down gradually due to its new policy actions such as new OMO restrictions announced on 2 January 2023, series of selective reverse repo liquidity auctions and more private placements in sale of government securities.

Background of the rate hike

However, the media and markets were shocked by 1% rate hike announced on 3rd March. The Governor at the press conference disclosed that the rate hike decision was taken as part of the staff agreement with the IMF which has insisted a rate hike of 2.5% to unlock the IMF loan facility of 2.9 bn USD being awaited.

When present level of high inflationary pressures above 50% being broad-based in the economy and seen sustaining for a long period to come, further rate hike approach of the IMF is seen highly appropriate in the present policy interest rates-based monetary model believed by both IMF and CB (However, I am totally against this model for Sri Lanka). 

Many central banks led by those in developed market economies are presently in same direction although inflation has been peaking during last few months because of sustained inflationary pressures of four decades high. Therefore, the CB’s temptation to reduce market interest rates through administrative actions are seen inconsistent with the monetary policy concept. In fact, the CB maintained policy rates unchanged at 14.5%-15.5% at five last meetings despite high inflationary pressures.

Policy governance concerns

The policy press release this time does not contain usual macroeconomic rhetoric of the CB unlike in other monetary policy press releases and it is a slippery, idle one page short one. Therefore, the Monetary Board or monetary policy economists of the CB do not seem to have any macroeconomic justification for the monetary policy decision this time other than the surrender to the IMF ideology.

I used to comment on contents of recent policy statements one by one on technical/economic grounds. However, I have only few contents to be commented in the present statement. They are given below in five points.

1. The CB seems to seek public sympathy for the rake hike this time.  

• First, it mentions some differences between the CB and IMF staff on the inflation outlook. 

• Second, it cites the consensus reached between the CB and IMF staff on the quantum of the rate hike as it states “the Monetary Board and the IMF staff reached consensus to raise the policy interest rates, in a smaller magnitude, compared to the adjustment, which was envisaged during the initial stage of negotiations.” The Governor stated at the press conference that the IMF requirement in last September  was a 2.5% rate hike. Similarly, the IMF in the last week got the Central Bank of the collapsing economy of Pakistan also to hike rates further by 2% to 20% where the central bank stated that the rake hike was to anchor inflation expectations of the economy which is seemingly getting bankrupt in Sri Lankan style, while the disbursement of the IMF loan of 6 bn USD already approved is suspended.

• Third, the CB passes the blame to the government for the surrender to the IMF by stating that “this decision demonstrates Sri Lanka’s commitment to the IMF-EFF arrangement, which has been pursued by the Government in order to ensure stability in the economy on multiple fronts.” It is public secret that the present Governor and Secretary to the Treasury are the people who overwhelmingly ran after the IMF with a motive to newly build their public positions. However, now the CB sees IMF deal as the work of the government and excuse for the rate hike.

2. The purpose of the Monetary Board is now lost because the policy statement recognizes the IMF to resolve the economic crisis. This is established by the statement “the finalisation of the IMF-EFF arrangement is expected to benefit all stakeholders and bolster confidence, which would help restore stability in the economy on a sustained basis. This will incentivise more foreign exchange flows in the period ahead that would aid the economy to overcome the prevailing economic crisis.” How the economy is stabilized by the 17th IMF loan program with 2.9 bn USD disbursed over a period of four years after failing of 15th and 16th IMF programs in the last decade is questionable, especially at the time of present economic crisis confronted by the country.

3. Like in the Central Bank of Pakistan, the Monetary Board also has given a slippery justification for the policy decision by stating that “the Board was of the view that the economy has already traversed through the most difficult and unprecedented times with tremendous resilience and strongly believes that today’s decision would pave way for a faster-than-expected deceleration of inflation.” However, the Monetary Board does not give any time frame for the public to assess its inflation control performance.

4. The Monetary Board also provides uneconomic anticipation from the rate hike by stating that “the Monetary Board anticipates that this monetary policy action would help lower the spread between policy interest rates and high market interest rates. This spread is expected to be further reduced with the reduction in market interest rates in the period ahead, especially the yields on government securities, reflecting the easing of risk premia as the debt restructuring process progresses.” This is a monetary joke made without any idea on economic principles behind interest rates.

• First, the Monetary Board raises policy rates to narrower the gap between policy rates and high market interest rates. In fact, policy interest rates is the base that drives other interest rates. Therefore, if the monetary theory works, market interest rates also should rise in response to higher policy rates in the next week and the spread will continue. Therefore, it is joke expect a narrower spreads while policy rates are raised.

• Second, Monetary Board members are unware of economic/financial fundamentals behind risk premia reflected in interest rates among different credit sectors. Risk premia are determined by credit markets and, therefore, the present mode of policy rates cannot intervene in market risk premia.

• Third, debt restructuring in fact will raise the risk premia on government debt due to concerns over domestic debt restructuring and uncertainty. In fact, the CB purposely drove government securities yield rates to rise at the beginning in order to tighten the monetary conditions without raising policy rates adequately as Treasury bill rates are directly controlled by the CB through various undisclosed devices. In contrast, the recent reduction in Treasury bill rates is also a hidden manipulation to mislead the public that the economy is now stabilizing gradually.

5. The Monetary Board states that “the Board urges all stakeholders to remain hopeful and reiterates its commitment to ensuring price and economic stability, and financial system stability, thereby assuring the normalisation of the interest rate structure no sooner the price pressures are sufficiently contained in the period ahead.” This is a meaningless statement.

• First, stakeholders of the Monetary Board are not listed. In fact, the Monetary Board is a stakeholder of the public.

• Second, as the Monetary Board implements the monetary policy of the IMF for Sri Lanka as revealed from the present decision, the Board cannot offer any commitment to the public.

• Third, the nature of the commitment whether Board steps down in the event the stated stability is not restored in a specified period is not stipulated.

• Fourth, normalization of interest rate is only a slang policy word and nobody knows what the normalized level is for any activities.

Concluding Remarks

If Mr. John Exter was alive, he would cry over the pathetic plight of the Sri Lankan Central Bank after 72 years. He recommended the authorities to assess the performance of the CB on its public duties after a period of 10-15 years. However, the authorities have failed to do it even after 72 years and, therefore, the present CB is a technically bankrupt both policy-wise and finance-wise and led the government and economy also to bankrupt after 72 years of its existence.

The present monetary policy press release itself is the evidence for policy bankruptcy. The evidence for the financial bankruptcy is the collapsed foreign currency reserve and resulting heavy exposure to government securities in quasi-default.

Therefore, relevant state authorities have to decide urgently whether they go with a new Central Bank to take risks of banks and financial institutions at a cost to the public under the new law proposed by the IMF or restructure the CB under the present monetary law to help the public recover from the present economic crisis in association with fiscal policies of the governments elected by the public.

Otherwise, the economy of Sri Lanka will be managed by the IMF to facilitate capital flows of international investors belonging to its controlling member countries. This is self-evident from policy statements that the IMF loan program is to rebuild confidence of international investors in Sri Lanka in old style of financial investments that the IMF has failed 16 times so far in the past.

However, the IMF and its agents in Sri Lanka act on past statistics management of the economy without any assessment of natural resource base of the country and potential development. Therefore, the IMF and its agents will definitely fail to stabilize Sri Lankan economy again for 17th time in the Sri Lankan recent economic history.

(This article is released in the interest of participating in the professional dialogue to find out solutions to present economic crisis confronted by the general public consequent to the global Corona pandemic, subsequent economic disruptions and shocks both local and global and policy failures.)

P Samarasiri

Former Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Sri Lanka

(Former Director of Bank Supervision, Assistant Governor, Secretary to the Monetary Board and Compliance Officer of the Central Bank, Former Chairman of the Sri Lanka Accounting and Auditing Standards Board and Credit Information Bureau, Former Chairman and Vice Chairman of the Institute of Bankers of Sri Lanka, Former Member of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Author of 10 Economics and Banking Books and a large number of articles publish. 

The author holds BA Hons in Economics from University of Colombo, MA in Economics from University of Kansas, USA, and international training exposures in economic management and financial system regulation)

Economy Forward: https://economyforward.blogspot.com/2023/03/monetary-policy-by-imf-staff-should-we.html