By: Isuru Parakrama

June 24, World (LNW): In the early hours of Tuesday (24), Iranian state media declared the commencement of a ceasefire with Israel, marking what was claimed to be the end of nearly two weeks of escalating hostilities.

The televised report was accompanied by prominent graphics proclaiming the truce, giving the impression of a formal resolution.

However, the announcement was quickly overshadowed by fresh alerts from Israeli defence officials warning of potential incoming missile attacks from Iranian territory.

This apparent contradiction has cast immediate doubt on the viability and sincerity of the ceasefire, with signs that the fighting may not yet be over.

The announcement came on the twelfth day of a conflict that has seen widespread destruction and mounting casualties, particularly in Iran, where hundreds are reported to have been killed.

Israeli losses have also been reported, with more than two dozen fatalities and substantial damage to infrastructure in the country’s north.

Adding to the confusion, former US President Donald Trump took to his Truth Social platform to declare, “the ceasefire is now in effect”, urging both parties to honour it. “Please do not violate it!” he added in a brief message.

June 23, World (LNW): Tehran has acknowledged the launch of a missile strike targeting the United States’ main military installation in Qatar, marking a significant escalation in the regional standoff following alleged attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities attributed to Washington.

On Monday (23), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed it had fired missiles at Al Udeid Air Base, located just outside Doha. The strike, which Iranian sources have dubbed “Annunciation of Victory”, comes as part of what officials in Tehran have described as a calculated response to recent US military actions against Iranian infrastructure.

The operation was first reported by Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

In the hours following the attack, dramatic scenes unfolded over Doha’s skies, with flares lighting up the capital and loud explosions being reported by residents. While the origin of the flashes—whether air defence countermeasures or incoming projectiles—was not immediately clear, the Qatari Ministry of Defence later confirmed that missile interception systems were activated and had successfully neutralised the threat.

“There were no casualties or damage to critical infrastructure,” the ministry stated, attributing the outcome to the swift deployment of defence protocols and the preparedness of Qatari forces. The country’s airspace was briefly closed as a precaution, with incoming flights diverted and outbound flights suspended until the situation was deemed secure.

This attack marks a notable shift in regional dynamics, with Iran choosing to strike a US military facility hosted on the territory of a Gulf state long viewed as a diplomatic bridge between Washington and Tehran. Al Udeid Air Base, operational since the mid-1990s, is the largest American military outpost in the Middle East, home to nearly 10,000 personnel and a strategic hub for US Central Command operations across Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council released a statement attempting to assuage concerns in Qatar, saying the missiles were deliberately aimed away from populated zones. “This was a measured and limited response that in no way endangers the safety of our Qatari brothers and sisters,” the statement read. Tehran also reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining close bilateral ties with Doha.

However, Qatari officials were quick to denounce the action. In a strongly worded statement, authorities described the missile strike as a “grave infringement of national sovereignty” and called for restraint from all parties to prevent a broader regional conflagration.

Meanwhile, the US and UK embassies in Doha issued security advisories urging their nationals to remain indoors and avoid unnecessary movement, highlighting the volatile and uncertain nature of the situation. The advisories remain in place as of Monday evening.

Commentators in Tehran have offered a variety of interpretations regarding the nature of the attack. Some speculate it may have been deliberately limited in scope, potentially part of a pre-arranged sequence designed to avoid open warfare.

This would mirror previous episodes such as the January 2020 missile attack on Iraqi bases following the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani — an event which also saw prior warnings issued through back channels, allegedly to minimise casualties.

Yet, others caution that the implications of this latest move are far from predictable. With tensions simmering and hostilities broadening beyond Iraq and Syria into the Gulf’s political and territorial space, the potential for miscalculation remains dangerously high.

Analysts now await Washington’s response, which could determine whether the current tit-for-tat cycle remains contained or spirals into something far more destabilising for the region.