‘super El Niño’ expected this year: weather expert

KARACHI: The subcontinent might witness a subdued monsoon this summer as the warming El Niño wea­t­her phenomenon is expected to form later this year, according to a weather expert.

“We are expecting El Niño in the coming summer and it is expected to become ‘super El Niño’ by the end of August to September,” Pakistan Meteorological Department’s (PMD) spokesperson Anjum Nazir Zaigham told Dawn.

He noted that El Niño suppresses the summer monsoon in the subcontinent.

El Niño and its cooler sister La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide.

El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they do not occur on a regular schedule, according to the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In a report published yesterday, The Guardiannoted, “A strong El Niño would put 2027 in the running to break global heat records, and could produce a series of devastating effects, ranging from supercharged rainstorms to drought, depending on the region of the world.”

Last month, NOAA noted there was a 50- to 60-per cent chance of El Niño developing during the July-September period and beyond.

El Niño’s impact would be higher in 2027 than in 2026 if it develops in the second half of this year, according to Tido Semmler, a climate scientist at Ireland’s National Meteorological Service. “It takes time for the global atmosphere to react to the El Nino,” he said earlier.

Meanwhile, in a weather forecast issued on Wednesday, the PMD said “hot and dry weather was likely to prevail over most parts” of Sindh.

It forecasted “warm” weather today and tomorrow in Karachi, with the maximum temperature reaching 36 degrees Celsius today.

Humidity levels in the morning were expected to remain 80 per cent, before dropping to 40-50pc in the evening.

For Friday, the PMD predicted hot weather in the metropolis, with mercury surging to 37°C during the day and remaining between 24-26°C at night.

What is El Niño?

El Niño typically results in drier conditions across southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, and northern Brazil, and wetter conditions in the Horn of Africa, the southern United States, Peru and Ecuador.

The last El Niño occurred in 2023-2024, contributing to making 2023 the second-highest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.

El Niño can weaken consistent trade winds that blow east to west across the tropical Pacific. “Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas,” NOAA notes.

This weakening warms the usually cooler central and eastern sides of the ocean, altering rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and wind patterns around the world.

The extra heat at the surface of the Pacific releases energy into the atmosphere that can temporarily drive up global temperatures, which is why El Niño years are often among the warmest on record.

DAWN

By Adolf

Serious questions are now being raised about whether investors in the recent sustainable bond issued by National Development Bank PLC were adequately informed of material developments within the bank before the issue was launched. The matter has sparked debate within financial circles, with some investors and analysts calling for a thorough and transparent investigation.

Bond Issue 

NDB launched and opened subscriptions for a Basel III–compliant Green, Social, Sustainability and Sustainability-Linked (GSS+) bond on 10 March 2026, raising approximately LKR 16 billion. The bond was oversubscribed on the opening day, reflecting strong investor appetite and confidence in the bank’s reputation and financial standing. The issue was also notable as one of the largest thematic sustainable bond offerings in Sri Lanka’s banking sector, aimed at financing environmentally and socially responsible projects. Such projects typically include renewable energy, climate-resilient infrastructure, and other initiatives aligned with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives. The strong investor response indicated confidence in the credibility of the institution and the disclosures accompanying the bond issue. However, in the weeks following the issuance, concerns began to emerge within the market regarding governance issues and possible financial irregularities linked to the bank’s operations. Analysts and market observers have suggested that certain warning signals may have been known internally as early as January or February 2026. If that is the case, an important governance question arises: whether the board and senior management had knowledge of material risks prior to the bond issuance and whether such information should have been disclosed to investors before raising funds from the market.

Downgrade 

The situation has been further complicated by credit rating downgrades affecting several of the bank’s financial instruments, which have unsettled investors who subscribed to the bond. In capital markets, transparency and timely disclosure of material information are fundamental principles that underpin investor confidence.As a result, some investors are reportedly considering legal and criminal action against the chairman and members of the board of directors, arguing that they may have been misled about the bank’s internal situation at the time of the bond issuance. If material information was knowingly withheld, critics argue that this could constitute a breach of fiduciary responsibility owed to investors and the market.

CBSL failed 

Beyond the responsibilities of the board, attention is also turning to the role of regulators. Institutions such as the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the Colombo Stock Exchange have a critical fiduciary and statutory duty to safeguard market integrity and ensure that the investing public is kept properly informed of material developments affecting listed entities and financial instruments.Calls are now growing for the Criminal Investigation Department to examine the circumstances surrounding the events leading up to the bond issue and to determine whether any violations of disclosure, governance, or financial regulations occurred. At the same time, market participants expect regulators to communicate transparently with the public and investors if material concerns arise.

Conclusion 

The episode has reignited a broader discussion on corporate governance, regulatory vigilance, and investor protection in Sri Lanka’s financial sector. Banks operate on public trust, and both boards and regulators carry a shared responsibility to ensure transparency, accountability, and the timely disclosure of information that may materially affect investor decisions. Ultimately, the outcome of any investigation will determine whether this episode represents a governance lapse, a regulatory oversight, or a misunderstanding. Regardless of the final findings, the case underscores a critical principle: confidence in capital markets depends not only on the conduct of corporate boards but also on the vigilance and fiduciary responsibility of regulators to keep the investing public fully informed. In the final analysis, it is evident that no investor would have invested even a single rupee had they been aware of the alleged underlying issues associated with the reported Rs. 13.2 billion fraud.

The prolonged failure to implement Sri Lanka’s e-Motoring system has triggered an intensifying debate over administrative accountability, procurement governance, and possible interference at multiple levels of the public sector.

Designed as a comprehensive digital platform to replace outdated manual vehicle registration processes, the system was expected to significantly reduce corruption risks, improve efficiency, and strengthen institutional transparency within the Department of Motor Traffic (DMT).

Despite being formally procured in 2018 following years of preparatory reform work initiated between 2009 and 2010, the project remains unimplemented.

This delay, now stretching into its eighth year post-award, has become a focal point of concern among oversight bodies and governance analysts who question how a fully funded and contracted national system could remain inactive for so long.

In parallel, law enforcement agencies have recently intensified investigations into alleged corruption linked to vehicle registration processes.

Arrests involving several current and former DMT officials, including a former senior administrator, have drawn attention to longstanding weaknesses in the existing system.

These developments have reinforced suspicions that the legacy manual framework, in place for more than three decades, has enabled opportunities for manipulation and irregular transactions.

However, attention is now shifting beyond individual misconduct toward systemic failure. Critics argue that arresting individuals alone does not address the structural deficiencies that allowed such practices to occur in the first place.

 At the center of this argument is the stalled e-Motoring system, which was intended to eliminate precisely these vulnerabilities through automation and centralized digital controls.

Additional controversy emerged following a parliamentary oversight session on 4 March 2026, where senior officials reportedly claimed that the system remains operational and subject to ongoing updates.

These statements have been challenged by emerging claims that the system’s external software vendor discontinued support in late 2024, potentially leaving critical components outdated or unsupported. If accurate, this raises serious questions about both technical management and transparency in official reporting.

Allegations have also surfaced suggesting that bureaucratic actors, possibly in coordination with political interests, may have contributed to deliberate delays in the system’s deployment. While these claims remain unverified, they have intensified calls for an independent and comprehensive investigation into decision-making processes surrounding the project.

Key unresolved issues now dominate the discourse: whether the repeated delays were the result of negligence, intentional obstruction, or procurement mismanagement; whether false or misleading assurances were provided to Parliament and oversight committees; and where ultimate responsibility lies for the financial and operational costs incurred due to non-implementation.

In response to growing concerns, governance experts are calling for an urgent independent audit of the entire e-Motoring project. They emphasize that without transparent disclosure, accountability mechanisms, and immediate deployment of a secure digital vehicle registration system, public trust in major state digital transformation initiatives will continue to erode

The Inland Revenue Department (IRD) has reported a striking acceleration in tax collection, collecting Rs. 606 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. The 17.7% year-on-year increase reflects more than routine fiscal improvement; it signals a broader structural shift in Sri Lanka’s post-crisis revenue recovery, driven by import normalization, tighter enforcement, and expanding taxpayer compliance.

Officials confirm that all major tax categories including Income Tax, Value Added Tax (VAT), and the Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL) recorded strong gains. However, behind these headline figures lies a more complex set of drivers reshaping state revenue dynamics.

One of the most significant contributors has been the gradual rebound in vehicle imports following prolonged restrictions. As import channels reopened under regulated conditions, customs-linked VAT, excise duties, and related income tax flows surged.

The revival of motor vehicle imports particularly hybrid and used vehicles has created a ripple effect across tax streams, boosting both corporate earnings in the automotive trade and indirect consumption taxes.

At the same time, domestic consumption has stabilised after years of inflationary pressure, supporting VAT collections across retail, telecommunications, and financial services. The IRD has also intensified compliance audits and third-party data matching, reducing underreporting and improving declarations from medium and large taxpayers.

A key internal driver has been the strengthening of digital tax administration systems, particularly the expansion of real-time reporting under the Revenue Administration Management Information System (RAMIS). This has enabled faster reconciliation of tax filings and reduced delays in enforcement actions. Officials say this has also contributed to a notable rise in voluntary compliance, as taxpayers increasingly perceive the system as more transparent and less prone to discretion.

The IRD credits its administrative reforms and risk-based audit selection for plugging revenue leakages. High-risk sectors including construction, import-export trading, and professional services have come under closer scrutiny, contributing to improved compliance ratios.

Economic expansion has also played a role, albeit unevenly. While export manufacturing remains stable, domestic services and logistics have shown renewed growth, feeding into corporate income tax inflows.

Despite these gains, analysts caution that the current momentum remains sensitive to import policy shifts, currency stability, and global demand fluctuations. The IRD’s ability to sustain this trajectory will depend on whether compliance improvements can offset volatility in trade-related taxes.

With nearly a quarter of its annual target already achieved in the first three months, the department now faces the challenge of maintaining consistency across the remaining quarters particularly as base effects normalize and one-off import-driven gains taper off.

Sri Lanka’s strong rebound in worker remittances has become a cornerstone of its post-crisis recovery, yet underlying vulnerabilities suggest the current momentum may not be as secure as headline figures imply. Official data reveals remittances surged 17.5 percent in March 2026 to US$814.8 million, capping a steady rise that began after sweeping monetary reforms in 2022.

The country also recorded a 26.5 percent increase in remittance inflows during the first quarter of the year, reaching US$2.29 billion. These gains follow an exceptional 2025, when annual inflows surpassed US$8 billion—marking the highest level in Sri Lanka’s history. The resurgence reflects both improved confidence in formal financial systems and a significant increase in outward migration as workers seek better opportunities abroad.

In the aftermath of the 2022 economic collapse, thousands of Sri Lankans left the country, driven by high inflation, currency depreciation, and shrinking domestic job prospects. The government has since actively encouraged labor migration, particularly among skilled professionals, as a strategy to boost foreign exchange earnings.

Equally important has been the Central Bank’s policy shift away from a controlled exchange rate regime. Previously, attempts to maintain artificially low interest rates and stabilize the currency led to the emergence of a parallel market, offering more attractive rates for remittances sent through informal channels. This caused a sharp drop in official inflows in 2021, weakening the country’s external position.

The abandonment of these policies, combined with aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022, helped unify exchange rates and restore transparency. As a result, remittances began returning to formal banking systems, improving liquidity and strengthening foreign reserves.

Yet the current growth story is not without risks. Sri Lanka’s heavy dependence on remittances now its largest source of foreign exchange creates significant exposure to global uncertainties. The ongoing instability in Gulf economies, where a large share of Sri Lankan workers are employed, could quickly translate into reduced earnings or job losses.

Furthermore, remittance growth driven by increased migration may not be sustainable in the long term. Host countries may impose stricter labor regulations, while economic slowdowns could limit employment opportunities for foreign workers. Any such developments would directly affect Sri Lanka’s inflow of foreign currency.

There is also the concern of “brain drain,” as the migration of skilled professionals accelerates. While this boosts short-term remittance inflows, it risks undermining domestic productivity and innovation capacity over time.

In this context, policymakers face a delicate challenge: maintaining the current momentum in remittance inflows while reducing structural dependence on external labor markets. Strengthening domestic industries, diversifying export earnings, and ensuring macroeconomic stability will be crucial to safeguarding gains.

Sri Lanka’s remittance recovery is a vital lifeline, but it is not a permanent solution. Without careful management and forward-looking policies, the very engine driving today’s recovery could become a source of vulnerability tomorrow.

Sri Lanka’s financial sector has been jolted by the revelation of a Rs. 13.22 billion internal fraud at National Development Bank PLC (NDB), prompting swift intervention by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) and intensified criminal investigations. While authorities insist the bank remains financially stable, the scandal has triggered mounting public concern and political pressure for deeper structural reforms and stronger leadership oversight.

The CBSL has moved decisively from passive monitoring to active intervention. It confirmed that NDB still meets minimum capital adequacy and liquidity requirements, offering reassurance to depositors. However, precautionary measures have been imposed to prevent further instability. These include the suspension of the bank’s cash dividend, originally scheduled for April 6, 2026, and strict limits on discretionary spending. Expansion plans, including new branches, have also been halted under regulatory direction.

To further safeguard the banking system, the CBSL has ensured that NDB retains access to emergency liquidity facilities, a move aimed at preventing any potential bank run. In parallel, the bank’s Board of Directors, under regulatory supervision, is in the process of appointing an independent forensic auditor to conduct a comprehensive investigation into internal control failures that enabled the fraud.

Criminal proceedings are advancing rapidly under the Criminal Investigation Department (CID). By mid-April, at least 16 suspects including bank employees and a manager from the Payments and Settlements

 Divisionhad been arrested and remanded. Investigators stated that the probe could widen significantly, with nearly 60 individuals potentially implicated as authorities trace funds siphoned from the bank’s general ledger.

Portions of the stolen money have already been linked to personal accounts of key suspects, raising serious concerns about systemic vulnerabilities.

Despite these developments, NDB’s current leadershipChairman Sriyan Cooray and CEO Kelum Edirisinghe remains in place. However, calls are intensifying for the appointment of a competent authority or interim management team comprising experienced banking professionals with proven track records both locally and internationally. Analysts argue that restoring public confidence requires not just regulatory oversight, but credible leadership capable of navigating complex financial crises.

Adding to the pressure, MP Ravi Karunanayake has sharply criticized what he described as a “systematic failure of accountability” by the CBSL. He warned that the fraud could extend beyond NDB, potentially involving multiple banks and non-banking financial institutions. His remarks underscore broader concerns about regulatory gaps and delayed responses to critical warning signs.

As scrutiny deepens, the need for decisive leadership reform is becoming increasingly clear. The situation highlights not only institutional weaknesses but also the urgent necessity of appointing a competent, independent authority to stabilize governance, rebuild trust, and ensure such failures do not recur within Sri Lanka’s banking system.

U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that talks aimed at ending the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran could resume in Pakistan within the next two days.

Speaking in an interview, Trump indicated that efforts toward a more lasting resolution may restart soon, following earlier negotiations that failed to produce an agreement.

The proposed discussions are expected to take place in Islamabad, which has recently hosted high-level meetings between the parties involved.