By: Adolf

The precise sequence of events leading to Sheikh Hasina’s resignation as prime minister of Bangladesh and departure for India on August 5 may not be available, but it appears to have followed the reluctance of the army to try and forcibly interdict the oncoming mass of people, as may have been the wish of the prime minister.

This left no option for her but to relinquish office and, as insisted upon by family, seek safety outside Bangladesh. In Nepal, too, in April 2006, the Royal Nepal Army refused to fire on fellow citizens, leading to the political retreat and eventual abdication of the king.

Sri Lanka was no different. Gotabaya fled to Maldives and returned. Had the current president Ranil Wickremesinghe allowed the protesters to take over parliament. Sri Lanka would have still been in crisis. Unlike in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh economy was performing. The economic performance of the Bangladesh government was commendable, and Bangladesh was poised to become a middle-income country by 2026, its per capita GDP already exceeding India’s.

On the other hand the Sri Lankan economy was in the doldrums and people were fighting for petrol, gas and electricity on the streets. Can we forget these so easily? Do some people want us to forget all this to please their masters back at their capitals? Do they have the right to so? Addressing a press conference yesterday former Stare Minister Ruwan Wijewardene said, “Citizens are coming together to vote for President Wickremesinghe as a gesture of appreciation, regardless of which party or candidate emerges in the election.”

There is much speculation that India wants a change at the top. India has for sure been closely monitoring developments in Sri Lanka, especially given the geopolitical significance of the island nation in the Indian Ocean region. India’s concerns often revolve around Sri Lanka’s relationships with other major powers, such as China, which has made significant inroads in the country through investments and infrastructure projects.

Economic Stability

The key issues for the public are very clear and different to what other powers want? The public is still struggling with the Economic crisis that is causing severe hardships for the population. Prices of essential goods, including food and fuel, skyrocketed, and many are struggling to afford the basic necessities. With the IMF package now in play, it may lead to a crisis if the terms and conditions  are changed without the consent of the IMF.

We cannot afford to allow half baked inexperienced politicians to get away with political rhetoric. People’s livelihoods cannot be played around . Ironically, In 2027 nearly $9 Billion has to be paid. Are we going to borrow at commercial rates to repay ? We need answers. Ensuring political stability and effective governance is essential for implementing reforms and maintaining public trust. Managing diverse political factions and fostering an inclusive political environment are key challenges for the country.

The other issue is Social Equity and Living Standards.  Addressing public dissatisfaction due to economic hardships is important. It is being used to garner political support . Policies aimed at improving living standards, reducing inequalities, and mitigating social tensions are crucial for maintaining social stability.

Sustainable Development and Environmental Protection is key.  Implementing sustainable development policies, protecting natural resources, and addressing climate change impacts are significant concerns. These efforts are essential for long-term national development and environmental sustainability. The country needs a leader who can deliver on these fronts.

Country Future

Whilst there is no substantial evidence to suggest that India is actively pushing for a regime change in Sri Lanka. India should focuses on diplomatic engagement, economic cooperation, and regional stability. India should continue to ensure its interests are protected, rather than people perceiving that they are working for a change in leadership at the top.

Speculating about India’s involvement in regime change by our locals would most likely be based on misinterpretations of its diplomatic actions or concerns about regional security dynamics and back door commitments and communications and utterances by the diplomats and politicians on the ground.

India bailed out Sri Lanka in 2022. Whilst China and USA watched in Silence. People are grateful for that, therefore they must not leave room for any misunderstanding or squandering away that enormous goodwill. As John F. Kennedy the 35th U.S. President once said “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.”

JFKs statement speaks to the consequences of superpowers interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, often preventing peaceful political evolution and sowing the seeds of conflict. We just cannot afford to become the next Bangladesh given our weak financials.