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Sri Lanka Anticipates Positive Economic Growth in 2024, CB’s Monetary Policy Report Reveals

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February 16, Colombo (LNW): In its latest monetary policy report released on Thursday (Feb.15), the Central Bank of Sri Lanka expressed optimism about the country’s economic prospects for 2024, foreseeing a positive annual growth trajectory that is expected to gradually reach its potential over the medium term.

The report provides forward-looking insights into various economic aspects, with a focus on inflation and overall economic growth. It aims to assess potential risks to projections, taking into account both domestic and global developments.

Highlighting Sri Lanka’s achievements in 2023, the Central Bank noted the successful reduction of the inflation rate to single-digit levels, thereby restoring price stability after addressing the historically high inflation observed in 2022. The report projects inflation to stabilize around the targeted level of 5% (year-on-year) over the medium term.

Despite potential deviations from the target in the short term, attributed mainly to recent amendments to the Value-Added Tax (VAT) and supply-side disruptions, the Central Bank anticipates such impacts to be short-lived.

The report also acknowledged the government’s decision to increase VAT from 15% to 18% at the beginning of 2024, a measure taken to meet revenue targets under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program.

Sri Lanka’s economic recovery is discernible, with traces attributed to the IMF’s bailout package of USD 2.9 billion. The island nation had faced its worst financial crisis since independence in 1948 and defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time in history in April 2022. The IMF support has played a crucial role in stabilizing the nation’s economic situation.

President Wickremesinghe Advocates Unity and Economic Transformation in Inaugural Speech

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February 16, Colombo (LNW): During the inauguration of the first phase of the North Water Supply Project, President Ranil Wickremesinghe delivered a speech emphasizing the critical importance of peace, food security, and economic opportunities. Drawing inspiration from Lenin’s pre-communist ideals of “Peace, Land, Bread,” the President underscored his government’s commitment to establishing stability, ensuring food security, and providing land ownership opportunities.

President Wickremesinghe highlighted the current environment of peace and stability, noting that it allows for open criticism and protests. He acknowledged the significance of addressing basic necessities such as rice and bread to uphold the well-being of the citizens.

Specifically, the President commended the success of the Urumaya program in providing land ownership and emphasized the urgent need to create employment opportunities for the youth to prevent further unrest.

In a forward-looking approach, President Wickremesinghe recognized the necessity of foreign investment for national development. He announced plans to introduce new laws aimed at economic transformation and reiterated his invitation to the opposition and all stakeholders to collaborate on this national endeavor.

“We need to source funds and attract foreign investments soon. That is what we are doing. We will be introducing new laws for economic transformation. That is why I call everyone to come together and work together. Again, I invite the opposition and all others to join together and engage in this program,” stated President Wickremesinghe, emphasizing the importance of collective efforts for the country’s progress.

Sri Lanka Original Narrative Summary: 16/02

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  1. The President of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Dr. Tanaka Akihiko calls on President Ranil Wickremesinghe on W. During the meeting, Dr. Akihiko expressed gratitude for President Wickremesinghe’s commitment to the economic reform program, acknowledging its challenging nature.
  2. Former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga denies recent media speculation about her involvement in the upcoming presidential election, stating that she has not endorsed any candidate. Additionally, she dismissed rumors of accepting a leadership role within the Podu Jana Eksath Peramuna council.
  3. Ports, Shipping, and Aviation Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva announces the signing of a direct air service agreement between Israel and Sri Lanka. Speaking at a press briefing themed “Collective Path to a Stable Country”, Minister highlighted the agreement’s focus on preventing delays in Sri Lankan workers’ migration abroad.
  4. Application process for the second phase of the ‘Aswesuma’ welfare benefits scheme programme commences, aiming the selection of an additional 400,000 beneficiaries.
  5. Education Minister Susil Premajayantha affirms that all necessary steps have been taken to commence the new school term of 2025 in January as customary, with plans in place to conduct the Advanced Level (A/L) examination earlier than 2025.
  6. People’s Leasing and Finance PLC announced a Profit After Tax (PAT) of Rs. 2,141 million for the first nine months of fiscal year 2023/24, with the third quarter contributing Rs. 1,039 million, marking a 30.8% increase compared to the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year.
  7. The Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau (SLTPB) is set to launch a new tourism brand, the “Buddhist Trail,” to showcase the country’s rich cultural and religious heritage. The initiative aims to position Sri Lanka as a global pilgrimage destination, emphasizing its deep-rooted Buddhist heritage.
  8. Ceylon Petroleum Storage Terminals (CPSTL) has inked an agreement with the US-based petroleum products distributor ‘Shell-RM Parks’. The deal, signed at the CPSTL Head Office, focuses on the storage and distribution of fuel in Sri Lanka.
  9. Former Minister of Health Keheliya Rambukwella, former Health Secretary Janaka Chandragupta and five others have been ordered to be further remanded until February 29, over the import of substandard human Immunoglobulin vials.
  10. Tickets for the first match of the T20I series between Sri Lanka and Afghanistan have been sold out, Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC) announced. Advises the general public not to arrive at ticket counters seeking match tickets for the first T20I to be played on Saturday.

Several spells of showers will occur in Eastern and Uva provinces

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February 16, Colombo (LNW):: Several spells of showers will occur in Eastern and Uva provinces and in Polonnaruwa, Matale and Nuwara-Eliya districts.

Showers or thundershowers may occur at a few places in Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Galle and Matara districts after 2.00 p.m.

Fairly strong winds about (30-40) kmph can be expected at times in eastern slopes of the central hills and in Northern, North-central, North-western, Uva and Eastern provinces and in Hambantota district.

The public is kindly requested to take adequate precautions to minimize damages caused by temporary localized strong winds and lightning during thundershowers.

Rescheduling of debt expeditiously is key to recovery

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President Ranil Wickremesinghe said the finalisation of debt restructuring could be completed by the first half of the year, which is going beyond the earlier anticipation for it to be completed within the first quarter

President Wickremesinghe said in Parliament last week that “Sri Lanka expects to implement a debt restructuring framework within the first six months of 2024, expressing confidence that the nation was recovering from its worst financial crisis in decades.” The Sri Lankan economy is clearly showing signs of recovery from the severe economic crisis, with improvements in our foreign exchange positions and current account deficits. But a significant challenge remains in managing the country’s large sovereign debt and inequities of the partial coverage of the domestic debt optimisation program. Therefore we need to show some tangible progress in the debt rescheduling. 

To achieve durable economic stability and put the economy on a sustainable growth path, the massive sovereign debt needs to be rescheduled. High on the agenda is the private creditors. In a notice dated 12 April 2022, the Ministry of Finance articulated that holders of ISBs desiring to receive LKR in lieu of the due amount should indicate their preference. It is understood that this provision extends the option for bondholders to receive LKR-denominated bonds in Sri Lanka as a complete and conclusive settlement of their ISB holdings. Alternatively, those opting not to convert their holdings to LKR denominated bonds can pursue settlement in USD directly with the GOSL. Considering that the shortage of USD that led to the default, settling a portion of the debt in LKR emerges as a viable alternative. Furthermore, settling in LKR at the prevailing exchange rate might prove advantageous for the GOSL, potentially mitigating the risk of a higher settlement in the event of LKR depreciation against the USD. To reduce the LKR burden, the Government can issue these bonds with a 10-year tenure with restrictions on its trading. 

Settlement of obligations 

Moreover, this proposition, offered in pari passu to all ISB holders, not only mitigates the challenges associated with settling obligations in USD but also streamlines the resolution process for remaining USD ISB holders. By settling a portion of the liability in LKR denominated bonds, there will be a substantial reduction in the overall forex settlement amount for the Government. Early restructuring of external debt will enable the Government to promptly re-establish its presence in the international debt market. Moreover, where foreign bondholders opt to receive LKR-denominated bonds, such transactions can be facilitated through an Inward Investment Account (IIA) subsequently to facilitate the transaction at the maturity stage. To deter immediate liquidation of bonds by such investors in the local market and subsequent remittance of foreign currency, the government may consider imposing extended tenures (e.g. up to 10 years or 15) for these IIA account holders to repatriate funds out of Sri Lanka.

LKR in lieu of USD 

Allowing investors to channel funds via an IIA also provides them with the flexibility to liquidate the LKR-denominated bonds should they opt not to retain the Government bonds and instead pursue alternative investment avenues, such as local real estate or investments in the Colombo Stock Exchange. Also it could be argued that an issue of a haircut or inability to pay in LKR does not arise when a bondholder is willing to accept LKR in lieu of USD, given that the GOSL possesses the financial capacity to fulfil its obligations in LKR. In instances where a bondholder expresses willingness to accept LKR, mandating a haircut or refusing settlement in LKR could potentially lead to legal action against the GOSL, both domestically and internationally. Such litigation could have widespread ramifications, potentially triggering a cascade of legal challenges that will further delay the rescheduling by years. Depriving the financial system access to global funding lines. 

Key takeaways 

1.) Forex liability of the Government will decrease substantially when payment is made in local currency.

2.) Issuance of long-term LKR bonds will not impact short term cash flows of the Government.

3.) Pari-passu for all ISB holders will make the issue transparent and acceptable to all parties.

4.) Government will be hedged against the depreciation of the LKR.

5.) Re-establish the GOSL presence in the international market to attract fresh capital. 

6.) Strengthening of the balance sheets of the banking sector.

7.) Converting ISB holders’ investments to LKR via a restricted IIA, eliminates possibility of immediate disposal by foreign shareholders in the local market.

8) Would facilitate the restructuring of the total debt very much faster 

References:

 https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/press/pr/press_20231213_imf_executive_board_completes_the_first_review_under_the_extended_fund_facility_arrangement_with_sl_e.pdf

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/12/12/pr23439-sri-lanka-imf-executive-board-completes-first-review-under-eff-arrangement

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/sri-lanka-targets-debt-restructuring-framework-first-6-months-2024-says-president#:~:text=SRI Lanka expects to implement,worst financial crisis in decades.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/sri-lanka-debt-restructuring-makes-slow-progress-even-with-16-growth-rate-in-q3-of-2023/article67821021.ece

Source: DailyFT

COPF concerns on the delay in establishing a gaming regulator

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By: Staff Writer

February 15, Colombo (LNW): The Committee on Public Finance (CoPF) at its inaugural meeting held under the Chairmanship of MP Dr. Harsha de Silva has summoned the Director General of the Fiscal Policy Department of the Finance Ministry to inquire into the delays in establishing a gaming regulator.

Despite the agreed upon deadline of 31 December 2023 for the regulator’s establishment, it remains unresolved, the CoPF observed during the meeting. It was also revealed that the committee has received no responses to its follow-up inquiries.

Stressing the vital role of a gaming regulator in both attracting investment and recouping billions of lost revenue, COPF members emphasises the urgency of this legislation. They highlighted that inadequate regulations result in substantial losses for the Government coffers.

Consequently, the Finance Ministry representative indicated a need for additional expertise to construct a robust revenue model similar to Singapore’s.

The CoPF instructed the Director General to provide details on physical and online casinos, including tax amounts and requested a proposed plan to recover outstanding taxes. The Committee granted a two-week extension for it, while expecting completion of the legislation by 31 March as agreed.

The Committee also approved the Secured Transaction Bill, paving the way for the implementation of the Secured Transactions Act of 2023 in Sri Lanka.

This Act establishes clear rules for securing transactions involving movable property, ensuring creditors’ rights are protected and prioritised.

 It mandates the creation of the Secured Transactions Registration Authority to oversee registration and maintenance of security rights, aiming to streamline the process and provide SMEs with better access to credit for growth.

In essence, this legislation enables individuals to use movable assets, like household appliances or business equipment, as collateral to secure loans for business development. It fosters increased credit availability for SMEs while ensuring the integrity of transactions through the registry authority, guarding against fraudulent activities.

The Committee also took into consideration Order under Subsection (4) of Section 3 under Strategic Development Projects Act No. 14 of 2008 and the Regulations under the Imports and Exports Control Act, No. 1 of 1969. Following consideration, the Committee approved the said Order and Regulation.

Shell-RM Parks to take up fuel storage and, distribution in Sri Lanka

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By: Staff Writer

February 15, Colombo (LNW): The Ceylon Petroleum Storage Terminals (CPSTL) signed an agreement with US-based petroleum products distributor ‘Shell-RM Parks’ today (12 Feb.).

The relevant agreement was signed at the CPSTL Head Office, pertaining to the storage and distribution of fuel in Sri Lanka.

As per the newly signed agreement, CPSTL is now able to store and distribute ‘Shell-RM Parks’ petroleum products in Sri Lanka.

On 08 June 2023, the Government of Sri Lanka signed an agreement with RM Parks Inc., in collaboration with Shell Plc for a long-term contract for the importation, storage, distribution, and sale of petroleum products in Sri Lanka.

“US-based petroleum company RM Parks in a collaboration with Shell PLC signed the agreement to enter the Sri Lanka petroleum business. RM Parks will be the 4th supplier to enter the domestic market and will operate under the Shell branding.”

A US-based company has reached a principle agreement to lay a new fuel pipeline between Colombo Port and the Kolonnawa terminal ahead of the signing agreement to begin its retail fuel distribution in Sri Lanka.

Under the agreement, RM Parks-Shell Company will make an initial investment of US$ 50 to 60 million for the project which is expected to begin after it enters into the retail fuel distribution business.

The new pipeline will replace the existing line which has experienced several leaks over the past few years.

In addition to the laying of the pipeline, the company will install fenders in the jetty replacing tyres which are used to prevent the collision of vessels and also invest in a fire control system in the harbour.

The company is set to sign an agreement this month to enter the fuel distribution business in Sri Lanka and begin operations in June.

Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera has held an online meeting with RM Parks-Shell Company to discuss agreements, policy, logistics and timeline to begin operations in Sri Lanka.

The company’s technical officials recently visited the Ceylon Petroleum Storage Terminal Limited (CPSTL) tank farm.

Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau to launch first-ever Buddhist Trail  

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By: Staff Writer

February 15, Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau (SLTPB) is gearing up to introduce a fresh tourism brand — the Buddhist Trail, to tap into the rich cultural and religious heritage of the country.

The initiative aims to highlight Sri Lanka’s deep-rooted Buddhist heritage and promote it as a prominent pilgrimage destination in a global scale.

“Sri Lanka, as a Buddhist country, holds immense potential to establish a unique tourism brand that resonates globally,” SLTPB Chairman Chalaka Gajabahu told journalists yesterday.

At the developmental stage, the Buddhist Trail project aims to emulate the success of similar initiatives like India’s Buddhist tourism circuit and the Ramayana Trail.

Gajabahu outlined the modality of the Buddhist Trail, highlighting its focus on significant Buddhist sites countrywide.

With rich heritage, breath-taking landscapes and profound spiritual significance, Sri Lanka can emerge as a leading destination for Buddhist pilgrimages and cultural exploration on the global tourism map,” he added.

Noting that countries such as India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, China and Cambodia are among the primary target markets due to their historical and cultural ties with Buddhism, he underscored promoting the Buddhist Trail, which extends beyond Asia to include traditional source markets in Europe, US and Australia.

”The decision to include Europe, US and Australia stems from the growing interest in Buddhist philosophy and spirituality among Western tourists.

By capitalising on this trend, Sri Lanka Tourism aims to diversify our offerings and attract a broader spectrum of visitors seeking spiritual enlightenment and cultural immersion,” he explained.

Sri Lanka is planning to boost Buddhist tourism by linking temples in the country with those in East Asia, Foreign Minister Ali Sabry said

President Ranil Wickremesinghe, and Minister Sabry have initiated a temple-to-temple program where 100 Sri Lanka temples will be linked with counterparts in the Association of South East Asian Nations region.

“Tourism development will get a lot of growth with the temple-to-temple program,” Minister Ali Sabry said.Along with the delegation of monks, five travel agents from Vietnam were also invited.

Under the first phase of the Temple-to-temple programs, several monks from Sri Lanka had received invitations from Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam the Foreign Ministry said.

The Temple-to-Temple diplomacy program will be extended to Singapore, Japan, Thailand and Cambodia during the second phrase of the program.

People’s Leasing & Finance PLC posts Rs 2.14 billion profit After Tax

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By: Staff Writer

February 15, Colombo (LNW): People’s Leasing and  Finance PLC recorded profit After Tax (PAT) reached Rs. 2,141 million for the 9 months, for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023/24 contributing Rs. 1,039 million, with an increase of 30.8% compared to the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year, officils of the company said.  

Commenting on the financial performance, People’s Leasing & Finance CEO Shamindra Marcelline stated: “We have strategically navigated through evolving market conditions to achieve exceptional profitability and profit growth while fortifying our balance sheet and mitigating impairment risks.

With the emerging economic recovery, PLC is positioned to seize opportunities and sustainably deliver value to stakeholders.”

This growth, attributed to the reversal of impairment charges and other losses, underscores PLC’s commitment to financial excellence and strategic financial management.

Despite a moderated Interest Income for the period, PLC recorded a commendable rise of 2.8% in Net Interest Income for Q3 of financial year 2023/24.

People’s Leasing focuses on enhancing credit quality and promoting collections has yielded positive results, with Impairment Reversal for the nine months ended 31 December 2023, amounting to Rs. 114 million.

Notably, Impairment Reversal for Q3 2023/24 surged by 94.4% compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

With a continued focus on right-sizing its balance sheet and loans and receivables portfolio, People’s Leasing and Finance has demonstrated strength in navigating a positive business environment with changing market dynamics.

As of 31 December 2023, the Total Asset Base stood at Rs. 156,007 million, while the Total Loans and Receivables Portfolio amounted to Rs. 102,275 million.

In addition, the People’s Leasing & Finance Group reported a notable increase of 23.2% in PAT for the nine months ended December 31, 2023, reflecting positive growth momentum.

The Group’s Total Assets and Loans and Receivables portfolio remain substantial, further solidifying PLC’s position as a leading player in Sri Lanka’s non-banking financial services sector.

 With its robust financial performance and strategic adaptability, People’s Leasing & Finance remains dedicated to driving substantial contributions to the economic prosperity of Sri Lanka, upholding its esteemed legacy as a dependable financial partner.

People’s Leasing & Finance PLC – a subsidiary of People’s Bank, and a publicly listed limited liability company on the Main Board of the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) – operates with a diverse portfolio of five subsidiaries.

CB announces Treasury Bill Yield Rates hit single digits for first time since march 2022

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February 15, Colombo (LNW): In a significant development, the Weighted Average Yield Rates (WAYR) of Treasury Bills, spanning both 91 and 182-day maturity periods, have descended to single-digit figures, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) disclosed.

This notable achievement was observed at the Treasury Bill auction convened yesterday (14 Feb).

This marks a significant milestone as the WAYR of Treasury Bills has now entered single-digit territory for the first time since March 4, 2022.