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CB Governor continues his guess work on IMF EFF approval deadline    

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Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe continues guessing off the top of his head for the third time relating to the date of receiving International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) approval for the US $ 2.9 billion bail out loan extending it first half of this year following his unrealistic deadlines of January 2023 and December 2022.

Sri Lanka has already missed the Central Bank Governor’s December 2022 deadline and it is about to miss his prediction of the January 2023 date, official sources said.

In a report, Standard Chartered Bank revealed that IMF board approval could happen in Q2-2023 (versus Q1 previously) given delays in securing financing assurances from bilateral creditors.

This could further delay negotiations with commercial creditors, which it expects will be pushed back to H2 and as a result a restructuring deal to be reached only by end-2023.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe disclosed that the government expects the IMF-EFF to be received in the first half-2023. 

India has already given its assurance regarding Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring while  China Japan follow suite soon he said adding adding that another round of discussion with China is underway,

Confirming the President’s deadline of Q2 2023 State Minister of Finance Shehan Semasinghe disclosed that Sri Lanka is in the final stages of providing a guarantee from the creditors to the IMF on debt restructuring.

Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe told a recent media conference if Sri Lanka misses the board approval in December it plans to appear before the IMF Board in January 2023 and is optimistic that it would shortly receive assurance from bilateral creditors including China and India.

The International Monetary Fund says it is difficult to predict the dead line of approving the extended fund facility of US$2.9 billion as the assurance of all the creditors is must for this purpose.  

“There has been good progress this month with India already pledging financing assurances. We expect assurances from China and Japan soon,” Weerasinghe said at an event titled “Economic Outlook 2023”.

India last week told the IMF that it strongly supports Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring plan.

“Once the IMF program is unlocked then we will start specific debt restructuring negotiations with both commercial and bilateral lenders,” he said.

“We hope to complete this process in six months. The biggest uncertainty is the timeframe for the debt restructuring. It is only after debt sustainability is assured can Sri Lanka return to a sustainable growth path,” he added.

Speaking at the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce launch of its economic outlook, Weerasinghe said tightening of the monetary policy and other measures by the Central Bank ensured that contraction of the economy in 2022 being limited to single digit and not double digit as well as avoid hyperinflation of over 100% inflation.

“CBSL didn’t contract the economy but rather our measures, even though difficult, helped to minimise the damage to growth and inflation,” he said.

His remarks were an apparent response to criticism against the current regime at CBSL that its policies indeed led to shrinking of the economy whilst the high interest rate regime has come under constant flack.

Sri Lanka’s import and export licensing system goes online  

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Sri Lanka’s importers and exporters have now been given opportunity to obtain import or export licences without any hassel following the giovernment’s decsison to implent e-licencing system at at the Import and Export Control Department.  

Cabinet of Ministers approves proposal submitted by President Ranil Wickremesinghe in his capacity as the country’s finance minister to introduce this new system to boost efficiency and transparency in services offered by Department.

Cabinet Co-Spokesman and Minister Bandula Gunawardena said automated workflow processes will ease international trade facilitation.

US Department of State EXBS program assures to provide Starlink IT system worth over US $ 280,000 to enable e-license issuance process.

“Import and Export Control Department has completed preparation for a new automated computerised system and online submission of applications to ensure efficient and effective service to the trade community. 

Automated workflow processes will improve international trade facilitation,” Minister Bandula Gunawardena said at the post-Cabinet meeting media briefing yesterday.

He also said that the Export Control and Border Security Program operating under the United States Embassy has agreed to provide the Information Technology System ‘STRATLINK’ worth $ 280,000 along with the complete source code to the Department of Import and Export Control as a donation.

 The Government intends to boost its productivity and clarity of services by implementing the e-licensing procedure with collective support from other departments and organisations such as Sri Lanka Customs, Excise Department, Department of Motor Traffic, Board of Investment and National Medicines Regulatory Authority and Sri Lanka Standards Institute.

Noting that the department plays a major role in the economy as a regulatory body which is responsible for the imports and exports being subjected to a license requirement, Gunawardena said before 1977, there were many restrictions for imports and exports which resulted in a heavy volume of work for the department. 

However, in the post-open economy, the workload of the department moderated.“Amidst the COVID pandemic and foreign exchange crisis, the department resumed the heavy workload again. 

Against this backdrop the Import and Export Control Department initiated the fully automated license issuing process to enhance its productivity and transparency,” he added. 

The Cabinet Co-Spokesman also noted that the department issues around 17,000 licences annually.He said  the system will provide enhanced security and information tracking.

Standardisation of import and export items is conducted to protect local industries, the environment and the people of the country. Money laundering is also controlled by implementing necessary policy frameworks together with the exchange control department.

“Compliance with international trade policies and modern e-technologies Import and Export Control Department is trying to upgrade licensing and service providing a process to esteemed levels by satisfying clients as well as sustaining national development objectives,” Gunawardena stressed.

China lists Sri Lanka in its pilot programme for outbound tourism

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The Ministry of Culture and tourism of China announced on 20 January 2023 that Sri Lanka will be included among the countries in its outbound tourism pilot programme which will commence from 6 February 2023.

Only a limited number of countries have been included in this list and this listing is a reflection of the close bonds between the two countries. The Embassy has consistently made representations to have Sri Lanka included in such a list.

The tourism industry of Sri Lanka which suffered a catastrophic decline following the Covid19 pandemic now has the opportunity to recover rapidly. In 2019, 169 million Chinese nationals travelled outside the Chinese mainland. Today there is a tremendous pent up urge to travel among the Chinese and large numbers are expected to undertake vacation travel.

The Sri Lanka Embassy in Beijing is continuing its multi faceted efforts to promote Sri Lanka tourism despite the limited resources available, including during Ambassador Dr Palitha Kohona’s visits to different provinces and cities. The electronic (TV) and the print media (including the national dailies) as well as widely popular social media platforms of Douyin, Tiktok and Alibaba are also regularly used to promote Sri Lanka. The Embassy has also established working relations with over 12 leading travel operators. Talks are at an advanced stage to shoot a feature film highlighting Sri Lanka’s fabled tourist attractions, including its world renowned Buddhist sites, abundant wild life, tea covered mountains, precious gems, pristine beaches, hospitality etc.

The Charge de Affairs of the Embassy, K.K.Yoganaadan, welcomed the announcement of the Chinese government. He encouraged Chinese travellers to choose Sri Lanka as it’s a very popular tropical destination especially during the winter months.

Ambassador Dr. Kohona stated that the re emerging tourism industry will be a welcome boost to the economy of Sri Lanka and expressed his appreciation to the Chinese government for including Sri Lanka in the pilot programme.

The countries listed for travel by the Chinese government are Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Laos, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Russia, Switzerland, Hungary, New Zealand, Fiji, Cuba and Argentina.

Sri Lanka: If no elections, there can be a democratic uprising!

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In a month’s time, the future of Sri Lanka will be decided not only in democratic terms but also in economic terms. There will be a strong democratic uprising if the government fails to hold the local government elections scheduled to be held in March 2023. By next month, whether the government allows the Elections Commission to hold the elections will be clearer. This is going to be the litmus test.

Democracy and Free Economy are like twin sisters. No parent should try to neglect one against the other. Both are necessary to address people’s economic needs, human rights, and social wellbeing. Although Sri Lanka has been one of the pioneer countries to introduce universal franchise (1931), and democratic governance (1947), since the introduction of a presidential system (1978), democracy has taken a strong downturn, the predicament of which is experienced throughout the country by all sections of society.

Past Character of the President?

It is no accident that the present President, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who has now come to power by accident, was a strong supporter of the presidential system that his uncle introduced in 1978. Therefore, there is no further surprise that he now makes his full efforts not to hold local government elections, clearly realizing that his party or his (Rajapaksa) allies will not be able to win the elections.

It is well known that his popular support is minimal. An overwhelming majority of his UNP party broke away in 2020 and formed the Samagi Jana Balawegaya(SJB – United People’s Movement) under the then deputy leader, Sujith Premadasa.

When Ranil Wickremasinghe contested from the UNP for the Colombo District in 2020, he obtained only 30,875 votes (2.61%)! Therefore, some people called him ‘two percent leader’!He, however, obtained a nominated seat in Parliament through the ‘national list,’ a much controversial system that his uncle J. R. Jayewardene introduced to distort the electoral system in the country.

Now he is the President! This situation itself shows that there is much distortion in the democratic system in Sri Lanka which must be corrected as soon as possible with the support of the international community. Does this situation have any economic repercussions? Yes, this is my observation and opinion. Let me raise the question who brought him to this power? It is well known, but some people forget that it was Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a war criminal, who brought him to this situation.

Of course, Gotabaya Rajapaksa had a popular backing of 6.9 million at the last presidential elections. But this does not apply to Ranil Wickremasinghe. Among the poor-quality political leaders of the country, RW appears to have some knowledge of economics! But his ideology prevails over this knowledge or ability.

He talks about a ‘social market economy.’ But practicesa ‘pure market’ yet depending on friends and associates. He was directly involved in the Bond Scam in 2015. He is also largely responsible for the present economic crisis, being the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance during 1915 and 1919. Didn’t he know about the unbearable debt obligations that the country was burdened with by that time? He repeatedly took loans and even sold the Hambantota port to China!

Aragalaya and the President

There is no question that the burning of his house in Colombo during the Aragalaya (struggle) last year was reprehensible. No democratic struggle in the country should go to that extent although the Universal Declaration of Human Rights warn the governments that “if man is not to be compelled to have recourse, as a last resort, to rebellion against tyranny and oppression, that human rights should be protected by the rule of law” (UDHR Preamble). 

Could there be any doubt that the rule of Gotabaya Rajapaksa was like ‘tyranny and oppression’? He was not elected for that purpose in 2020. People do make mistakes in voting, but democratic systems allow people to correct them through democratic discussion, dialogue, regular elections and believing in human rights. However, I have never heard Wickremasinghe talking about human rights even as deception! This is no surprise because he is a member of the International Democratic Union (IDU), which was founded by people like Margaret Thatcher and George W. Bush. The members of this group call themselves ‘center-right,’ perhaps to avoid the more realistic characterization of ‘far-right.’

The last stages of Wickremesinghe-Sirisena rule in 2019, the Easter Sunday attacks happened like ‘Sri Lanka’s holocaust’ and until recently no iota of justice was served. Sirisena is the other culprit of economic-political disasters of the country like Gotabaya, Basil, and Mahinda Rajapaksa. All these people should go away from politics, and if not, they should be completely thrown out. Like Sirisena, Wickremasinghe also should be responsible for the Easter attacks.

Look at the way leaders in mature democracies behave. In New Zealand, Jacinda Arden was elected as the Prime Minister in 2017 from the Labor Party. She has now given her resignation allowing another leader to take over. Few months before Sri Lankan ‘holocaust,’ two Muslim mosques were attacked by a single terrorist on the other side. Arden stood for justice firmly. Almost everyone admired the courage and impartiality of her.

During the last couple of years, many countries faced similar crises and challenges with Covid 19, economic depressions, terror attacks, and global warming. Except people like Donald Trump or our lot, many leaders did not stick to power but duty. Duties are something that our political leaders are probably unaware of. When people have rights, the leaders have and should respect their duties. Otherwise, they should go home.

Importance of Local Governments

The local government institutions are the base of our democracy with ancient roots. Throughout centuries, people used to rely on GramaSabhas (Village Councils) for their day-to-day necessities and functions. When I was a child, I clearly remember what the Moratuwa Urban Council (now Municipal) did for our community. Collection of faeces and disposing of them; maintenance of roads and cleaning them; and looking after health of the people through PHI’s, Midwife’sand Dispensers are some I can closely remember. There were no major political rivalries. The best people were elected, but mostly left-oriented ones. No one appeared to make money or be involved in heinous activities.

During my academic career (1969-2010 with intervals), I have been involved in research on the local government system with colleagues and students in Monaragala, Badulla, Kalutara and Mahiyanganaya. The potential of Pradeshiya Sabha’s particularly in democracy and economic development were very clear. Visits to Jaffna and Kilinochchi had confirmed the same. This is what Ranil Wickremasinghe, and the Rajapaksa gangs are now trying to destroy.

Wickremasinghe’s uncle, J. R. Jayawardene, also postponed the local government elections in 1978 and thereafter, on the pretext of introducing a District Council system. I was in Jaffna in 1981 and experienced the repercussions just before the burning of the Jaffna Library. It was to the credit of R. Premadasa that the Pradeshiya Sabha Act could be passed in 1987 and resurrect the local government system again with a clear link to the social and economic developments in particularly the rural areas. Premadasa’s background in the old Labor Party perhaps engineered this connection. Wickremasinghe’s background in this respect was and is the opposite. 

For a Peaceful Uprising

I again would like to reiterate that the burning of Wickremasinghe’s house in Colombo and other houses of Ministers and MPs is completely reprehensible. The occupation and damaging of the President’s House and Presidential Secretariat also cannot be approved whatever the anger of the people and youth. These violations happened in line with Donald Trump’s instigations and politics in the USA.

However, Wickremasinghe should not lead the country in the same manner. If somebody named ‘Anil’ was involved in those burnings and violence, Ranil should not follow Anil, and abuse people’s political power and democratic system. If that is the case, the people have every right to protest and stage a democratic uprising. To avoid that,Wickremasinghe should allow the holding of local government elections without any interference. Otherwise, in my opinion, it would be his political suicide.

A peaceful and democratic uprising would be the most effective and legitimate. I would propose the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and the Jathika Jana Balavegaya to gettogether in this democratic and peaceful venture. The support of Tamil and Muslim parties also should be sought. Any Aragalaya(struggle) without a clear direction and leadership would be hijacked by unreliable, anarchist and misguided sections.

SL GUARDIAN

The case filed against Cabraal by Thiniyawela Palitha Thera terminated

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The Private Plaint filed by Ven Thiniyawela Palitha Thera against former Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal was taken up today before the Fort Magistrates Court. As per the Order given by the Magistrate on the previous date of the Case, the Complainant was to file an amended plaint as undertaken by him.

However, he failed to do so, and instead his Counsel Maithri Gunaratne informed Court that the Complainant is withdrawing the Complaint.

Accordingly, the Magistrate terminated the proceedings

Local government elections postponed indefinitely?

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Sources say that a former minister who is a strongman of the ruling party informed his local representatives today (25) that the local government election has been postponed indefinitely.

This former minister, who is a political stalwart of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna in Kandy, has informed his local council representatives to cancel all the small public meetings used for the election.

He has said that the local government election has been postponed indefinitely.

SL excessive market interest rates begin to adjust downward

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Excessive market interest rates have begun to adjust downward and are expected to ease further in the period ahead, central bank announced today  

Early signs of a gradual easing of excessive market interest rates have been observed recently in response to the administrative measures adopted by the Central Bank, along with the improvements in domestic money market liquidity and overall sentiments in the domestic markets. 

Recent measures adopted by the Central Bank to reduce the overreliance of licensed commercial banks on the standing facilities of the Central Bank and the concurrent conduct of open market operations helped improve liquidity in the domestic money market. 

This prompted activity in the interbank money market. Improved liquidity conditions, along with improved investor sentiment on the anticipation of “financing assurances” from official creditors, led to a notable moderation in the yields on government securities recently, reflecting the easing of the high risk premia attached to government securities. 

Meanwhile, the market deposit rates have also shown a notable moderation, benefiting from improved liquidity conditions. 

These developments are expected to pave the way for an easing of excessive market interest rates in the period ahead. 

Nevertheless, outstanding credit extended to the private sector by commercial banks continued to contract in response to the tight monetary conditions and the moderation in economic activity. 

Monetary expansion also moderated from peak levels, albeit at a slower pace.

Overnight liquidity in the interbank market narrowed its deficit significantly and at times turned positive after the Central Bank announced limits on access to its standing facility windows from the middle of this month. 

The data on how the overnight money market liquidity behaved in the past month showed it had seesawed between surpluses and deficits, especially since the Central Bank announcement on January 3. 

For instance, the Rs.230.25 billion liquidity shortage that stood at the start of 2023 came down to around Rs.200 billion in the first week of January before turning a positive Rs.57.43 billion in the following week. 

Thereafter, the positive liquidity expanded to Rs.156.87 billion on January 17, the first day the directive came into effect. The overnight liquidity settled at a positive Rs.136.91 billion by end of last week, the first week since the restrictions came into effect. 

This flip to surplus was a result of banks depositing a huge Rs.316.65 billion under the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) window from just under Rs.30 billion the day before due to access limitations.     

As access to the SDF facility was limited to five times a month, banks now wait till Friday to deposit their excess liquidity under this window to make the most return as they get paid interest for 3 days till Monday at 14.5 percent. 

This pattern of waiting till Friday or until a day before a market holiday by banks could become the norm hereafter due to the limited access they have to the overnight window to generate returns out of their excess liquidity. 

Saudi Arabia pledges to provide employment for 200,000 Sri Lankans

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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has pledged to facilitate employment opportunities for 200,000 Sri Lankan migrant workers in 2023, Minister of Labour and Foreign Employment Manusha Nanayakkara revealed. 

The Minister said he was given this assurance during his meeting with Khalid bin Hamoud Nasser Aldasam Alkahtani, the Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to Sri Lanka.

Issuing a Twitter message, he  added that the Arabian nation had offered 54,000 migrant jobs last year.

Sri Lanka is looking for ways to boost bilateral relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through connectivity, investments and employment opportunities, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Sabry told a leading Middle Eastern newspaper.

Sabry, who is on an official visit to Saudi Arabia from January 23-27, made this remark during an exclusive interview with ‘Arab News’.

Recalling the cordial bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka, the minister said the island nation is hopeful of further strengthening the ties by boosting connectivity, investments and employment opportunities.

Sabry, mentioning that Saudi Arabia was a “very influential member of the international community” – especially in the Islamic world and due to the G20 membership – also spoke of the importance of improving bilateral relations with the Kingdom.

According to Sabry, improving the trade relations between the two nations will also be a focal point during his meetings with Saudi officials. He noted that boosting Sri Lanka-Saudi Arabia bilateral ties is a possible catalyst to a wider, better relationship with the Islamic world.

During his visit, Sabry is accompanied by a delegation that includes the State Minister of Rural Economy, Kader Masthan; the ambassador of Sri Lanka in Riyadh, Pakeer Mohideen Amza and the consul-general in Jeddah, Faiah Moulana.

He embarked on this visit to Saudi Arabia on an invitation extended by his counterpart in the Kingdom, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

Sabry is scheduled to meet with Foreign Minister Farhan Al Saud and discuss further enhancement of cordial bilateral relations. 

He will also meet with the senior officials of the Islamic Development Bank, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Governors of Mecca and Medina.

Sri Lanka Original Narrative Summary: 25/01

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  1. The Foreign Employment Bureau contributes a sum of Rs. 03 billion from its operational surplus to the Treasury to use for essential services such as medicine, paddy and public servants’ salaries – Labour and Foreign Employment Minister Manusha Nanayakkara hands over the cheque to President Ranil Wickremesinghe at the Presidential Secretariat.
  2. Supreme Court sentences Retd Maj Ajith Prasanna to 04 years of RI and fines him Rs. 300,000 over contempt of court – Prasanna and two naval intelligence officers accused of intimidating witnesses to an ongoing case against several navy personnel over the abduction and disappearance of 11 youths.
  3. Election Commission Chief Nimal Punchihewa clarifies on ‘still-pending’ gazette declaring the date of LG Polls – says the returning officers are responsible of declaring a date, not the EC – suggests the EC only approves a ‘schedule’ consisting of the date, the number of institutions, and the names of the political parties, the contenders and electoral divisions etc. ahead of a gazette – asserts the LG Polls will be held on March 09 as planned.
  4. SJB Trade Union Leader Ananda Palitha and Secretary of the Electricity Consumers Association Sanjeewa Dhammika arrested over intimidation and criminal coercion against two members of the PUCSL, Mohan Samaranayake and Udeni Wickramasinghe – remanded till Jan. 26.
  5. SLPP Founder and National Organiser Basil Rajapaksa launches political campaign for LG Polls – asserts SLPP will compete alone for 252 LG institutions and for a few others will contest in alliance with other parties this year.
  6. Power cuts approved by PUCSL continue despite criticism by many parties not to amidst the ongoing GCE Advanced Level Examination – Parents and social activists lament the government’s insensitivity towards children endangers their future.
  7. CAA to crack down on egg sellers for violating MRP declared by the government by selling eggs at a higher price amidst the ongoing struggle of poultry and egg industrialists due to scarcity of inputs; warns traders disobeying stipulated MRP that legal action will be taken against vendors violating the law – Gazette declaring new MRP says a white egg be sold at Rs. 44 and a brown egg, Rs. 46.
  8. CB Governor under fire for ‘misleading the public’ – Trade unions and professionals allege Weerasinghe misinterpreted the monetary law by stating ‘merchandise exporters can repatriate forex without having to convert such proceeds’; point out his comment seemingly withdraws his repeated accusations of exporters ‘stashing dollars overseas’; charge suppression of wages in the export sector as a whole is the fundamental factor enabling exporters to illegally retain incomes abroad; demand both the CBSL and the GOSL to take immediate action to repatriate any illegally transferred funds and bring the perpetrators to justice – Gazette Extraordinary No. 2251/42 dated 28.10.2021 stipulates ‘only service sector exporters are authorised by law to repatriate proceeds without conversion.’
  9. Reuters report claims China’s Exim Bank offered Sri Lanka a two-year moratorium on its debt and asserted it will support the country’s efforts to secure a US $2.9 billion loan from the IMF – Regional rivals China and India being the biggest bilateral lenders to Sri Lanka are said to be the variable to receiving IMF bailout.
  10. Secretary to the Ministry of Sports Amal Harsha De Silva says political influence into popular international games in Sri Lanka contributed to the FIFA ban; claims his many efforts to save Sri Lankan players from ‘international harassment’ failed; laments Sri Lankan sport teams have lost international recognition due to parties with little or no knowledge about sports.

Two (02) suspects with over 54kg of Kerala cannabis apprehended

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Sri Lanka Navy apprehended 02 suspects with over 54kg of Kerala cannabis, during separate search operations conducted in Norochcholai and New Town of Anuradhapura on 22nd January 2023.

A team of Navy Marines attached to SLNS Vijaya in the Northwestern Naval Command searched a suspicious lorry at Pulachchena Junction, Norochcholai on the night of 22nd January and apprehended about 45kg and 280g of Kerala cannabis (25 packages) being transferred. Accordingly, the stock of Kerala cannabis, the lorry and a suspect in connection to the incident were taken into naval custody.

Meanwhile, on receipt of information to the Northern Naval Command, SLNS Uththara and the office of Excise Department in the North Central Province conducted a combined search operation in the New Town of Anuradhapura on 22nd January. The search operation led to the apprehension of a suspect who was carrying about 08kg and 800g of Kerala cannabis in 04 packages.

The street value of Kerala cannabis (54kg and 80g) seized in these operations is believed to be over Rs. 18 million.

Meanwhile, the suspect apprehended in Norochcholai has been identified as a resident of Lunugamwehera, aged 49. The suspect along with the stock of Kerala cannabis and the lorry was handed over to the Police Narcotic Bureau, Puttalam for onward legal action.

The suspect apprehended in the New Town of Anuradhapura is a 41 year old resident of Jaffna. The accused together with Kerala cannabis was handed over to the office of Excise Department in the North Central Province for onward legal proceedings.

SL Navy