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Moody’s Warns Sri Lanka’s Recovery Still Fragile despite Progress

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Sri Lanka’s latest sovereign rating review by Moody’s Ratings paints a picture of cautious optimism, one of gradual recovery tempered by deep-seated fiscal weaknesses and persistent debt pressures.

 While acknowledging the nation’s improving macroeconomic fundamentals, the agency reaffirmed the country’s Caa1 rating with a stable outlook, underscoring that structural fragility and high external dependency still weigh heavily on its credit profile.

Moody’s said Sri Lanka’s economic recovery “remains broadly on track,” supported by fiscal reforms, a rebound in tourism, and robust remittance inflows. 

However, it cautioned that the nation’s heavy debt burden, limited fiscal flexibility, and dependence on foreign financing pose continued risks to stability. “Debt affordability remains weak, even as liquidity pressures have eased since the 2022 default,” the report noted.

According to Moody’s, real GDP expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, following a 5% rise in 2024. The agency expects growth to moderate to around 4.5% by year-end as base effects fade. Recovery in tourism to near pre-pandemic levels and stronger investment activity are expected to drive medium-term growth, supported by higher social spending that could lift consumer confidence.

On the fiscal side, Moody’s projects a deficit of 6–6.5% of GDP in 2025, narrowing from 6.8% last year. Revenues grew 26.5% year-on-year during the first seven months of 2025, aided by the lifting of vehicle import restrictions and stronger tax receipts. The primary balance is expected to remain in surplus, marking slow but steady debt reduction.

However, the agency warned that Sri Lanka’s narrow tax base and continued reliance on external funding remain key vulnerabilities. “Sustained reform momentum under the IMF programme could strengthen Sri Lanka’s credit profile, but any policy reversal or weakening in external buffers would increase downside risks,” it cautioned.

Moody’s also highlighted that while liquidity risks have eased following the 2022 debt restructuring and a buildup in foreign reserves, external vulnerabilities persist. The government’s ability to manage debt service obligations depends heavily on continued multilateral and bilateral support.

The agency’s stable outlook reflects a balance of risks optimism over reform progress offset by the fragility of Sri Lanka’s fiscal position. Moody’s said that upward pressure on ratings could emerge if reforms broaden the revenue base, improve debt affordability, and enhance institutional credibility. Conversely, any slowdown in fiscal reform, external shocks, or erosion of foreign exchange reserves could trigger renewed instability.

The reaffirmation of Sri Lanka’s low credit rating serves as a reminder that, despite signs of economic normalization, the country remains vulnerable to policy slippage and external shocks. Sustained commitment to reforms and prudent debt management will be key to securing a durable recovery and regaining investor confidence.

Cabinet Approves ‘Ratama Ekata – National Operation’ to Combat Drug Menace

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The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the establishment of a National Operational Council to implement an emergency rapid program titled “Ratama Ekata – National Operation,” aimed at eradicating the drug menace and rehabilitating drug addicts through broad public participation.

The proposal, submitted by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, received Cabinet approval earlier this week.

According to the government, the spread of narcotic drugs has become a serious national concern, with an increasing number of crimes linked to drug trafficking and abuse. Addressing this issue, the Cabinet Spokesman stated that a comprehensive, national-level response—backed by strong political leadership, effective decision-making, and active community engagement—is urgently required.

The “Ratama Ekata – National Operation” seeks to fulfill this objective by combining enforcement, rehabilitation, and public awareness initiatives. The program will include a nationwide information campaign to raise awareness about the dangers of drug use, crackdowns on trafficking networks, the strengthening of rehabilitation facilities, and expanded support for individuals recovering from addiction.

The newly established National Operational Council will be responsible for coordinating and monitoring all related activities to ensure the effective implementation of the initiative.

Department of Motor Traffic Assures Uninterrupted Services

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The Department of Motor Traffic (DMT) has confirmed that all its operations are continuing without any interruptions, dismissing recent rumours suggesting otherwise.

In a statement, the department explained that while several government institutions had recently experienced delays due to a technical fault, certain individuals had falsely claimed that the DMT’s services were also affected.

The department further noted that some intermediaries have been spreading false information and creating unnecessary pressure on the public by alleging that its services have been suspended.

The DMT clarified that vehicle registration and transfer services at its main office in Narahenpita are functioning as usual, while the driver’s license division in Werahera and all district offices across the country are also operating normally.

The department urged the public to remain vigilant and avoid being misled by false claims or intermediaries attempting to exploit the situation.

President Calls on State Officials to Ensure Development Benefits Reach the People

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President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has urged state officials to actively fulfill their role as the intermediary mechanism ensuring that the benefits of government development projects effectively reach the public.

The President made these remarks while chairing a Special District Coordination Committee (DCC) meeting held at the Ratnapura District Secretariat, which reviewed the progress of district development programmes for 2025 and addressed key implementation challenges.

Emphasizing the efficient use of allocated funds, President Dissanayake warned that returning unutilized budgets to the Treasury not only delays development but also results in resource wastage. He pointed out that repeatedly allocating funds to incomplete projects prevents the initiation of new development initiatives.

Criticizing past practices, the President noted that many government projects had been launched without feasibility studies or long-term maintenance plans. Citing the Hambantota SAARC Cultural Centre and the Anuradhapura Auditorium as examples, he highlighted the difficulty in maintaining such facilities due to the absence of managing institutions.

He suggested that the private sector could play a greater role in operating certain public facilities, such as tourist bungalows, inns, and markets, which currently remain underused.

Disaster Risk Management

The discussion also focused on disaster risks in the Ratnapura District. According to the National Building Research Organization (NBRO), around 15,000 families live in landslide-prone areas, including 2,763 families in high-risk zones.

The President noted that although a “Dry Dam” project involving two tributaries of the Kalu Ganga was proposed in 2014 to mitigate flooding, no feasibility study had yet been conducted. He agreed to allocate funding in the upcoming budget for a new feasibility study on flood prevention in the district.

Social Welfare and Law Enforcement

Other key topics included child protection and drug control. Police officials informed the meeting that a monitoring system has been established with Divisional Secretariats to identify and assist at-risk children. They also reported that daily anti-narcotics operations have contributed to curbing the spread of illegal drugs in the area.

Economic Development and Urban Planning

The President also reviewed plans to establish a gemstone trading centre with a value-addition laboratory in Ratnapura, aimed at strengthening the region’s gem industry. He further instructed officials to make productive use of underutilized land owned by the Urban Development Authority (UDA) near Ratnapura city for commercial and development purposes.

The meeting was attended by Minister of Buddhasasana, Religious and Cultural Affairs Dr. Hiniduma Sunil SeneviDeputy Minister of Plantation and Community Infrastructure Pradeep SundaralingamSabaragamuwa Province Governor Champa Janaki Rajaratne, and Ratnapura District Secretary K.G.S. Nishantha, along with senior government and provincial officials.

Gambling Regulatory Authority to Be Established by June 2026 – Finance Ministry and Inland Revenue Agree to COPF Proposal

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The Finance Ministry and the Department of Inland Revenue have agreed to implement the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) recommendation to establish a Gambling Regulatory Authority by June 30, 2026, aimed at formally regulating Sri Lanka’s casino industry.

The decision was discussed during a COPF meeting held in Parliament, chaired by MP Dr. Harsha de Silva, where officials underscored the urgent need for a structured framework to govern both physical and online gambling operations.

During the meeting, it was revealed that 60% to 70% of casino users in Sri Lanka now engage with online casinos, while only 30% to 40% visit physical establishments. However, no mechanism currently exists to collect taxes from online casino operations, resulting in a significant loss of potential state revenue.

Dr. de Silva emphasised the importance of expediting the establishment of the new authority, noting that Sri Lanka’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT) compliance will be reviewed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) next year. He stated that formalising casino operations under a regulatory body would help enhance transparencyimprove tax collection, and ensure compliance with international standards.

The Committee also proposed obtaining foreign technical expertise to assist in developing the regulatory and operational framework for the new authority.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the committee that nominations have already been called for a seven-member board of directors to oversee the authority, after which a Chief Executive Officer will be appointed to lead its operations.

Currently, six casino licenses have been issued for physical establishments in Sri Lanka. However, online casino operations remain unregistered and untaxed, despite their growing dominance in the sector—a gap the forthcoming Gambling Regulatory Authority seeks to address.

Government Makes Brown Sugar Mandatory for All State Institution Food Purchases

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The Cabinet of Ministers has approved a proposal requiring all government institutions to purchase and use brown sugar in their food procurements, as part of a broader initiative to support and strengthen Sri Lanka’s local sugar industry.

The directive applies to all state agencies, including the three armed forces, the Sri Lanka Police, the Prisons Department, and government hospitals, which will now be required to use brown sugar in all food-related purchases.

According to the Ministry of Industries and Entrepreneurship Development, the Pelawatte and Sewanagala sugar factories—operated by Lanka Sugar Company (Private) Limited)—currently produce around 56,000 metric tons of brown sugar annually. The Ministry noted that this year’s output has surpassed that figure owing to an improved sugarcane harvest.

The government stated that the policy aims to strengthen the domestic brown sugar industryprotect the livelihoodsof factory workers and sugarcane farmers, and promote the consumption of high-quality local brown sugar among Sri Lankan consumers.

It was further decided that brown sugar will be purchased directly from Lanka Sugar Company (Private) Limitedfor distribution to consumers through official government supply channels.

Fairly heavy showers expected across island

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The Meteorological Department has forecast a spell of unsettled weather across various parts of the island today, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours.

A combination of showers and thundershowers is anticipated in the Eastern, Uva, and Central provinces, as well as in parts of the Polonnaruwa and Hambantota districts, with rainfall activity likely to intensify after 1.00 p.m.

In particular, residents of the Uva province may experience fairly heavy rainfall, with some areas expected to receive over 50 millimetres. While the central and eastern regions are expected to bear the brunt of this weather system, isolated thundershowers may also develop in other parts of the country later in the day.

The morning hours could see showers developing along the western and southern coastal belts. In addition, misty conditions are forecast for certain locations within the Sabaragamuwa, Central, and Uva provinces during the early part of the day, potentially affecting visibility and travel.

Authorities are urging the public to remain vigilant and to take necessary safety measures, particularly during periods of thunderstorm activity. Localised gusty winds and lightning strikes are possible during these storms, posing risks to both individuals and property.

SL Tourism Growth Masks Weak Earnings as $5 Billion Target Slips

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By: Staff Writer

October 14, Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka’s tourism industry continues to show impressive visitor growth but remains constrained by weak revenue performance, raising doubts about the sector’s ability to achieve its ambitious $5 billion year-end earnings target. Despite recording a record number of arrivals in September 2025, the industry’s income trajectory reveals that higher visitor numbers have not translated into proportional economic gains.

According to the latest Central Bank data, tourism earnings for September stood at $182.9 milliona marginal year-on-year increase but a steep 42% decline from August. This sharp month-on-month fall highlights the persistent mismatch between arrival figures and actual spending. The average daily expenditure per tourist remains around $171, far below expectations and well short of the pre-crisis benchmark levels needed to sustain the industry’s revival.

Comparatively, in September 2018, tourism generated $279.8 million—about $97 million more than the current figure—underscoring that the sector still has significant ground to cover to regain its former strength. January 2025 remains the best-performing month so far this year, when earnings peaked at $400.66 million, supported by strong early-season travel demand.

During the first nine months of 2025, Sri Lanka’s tourism receipts totaled approximately $2.47 billion, reflecting a modest 5% increase compared to the same period in 2024. However, this still represents a 31.2% shortfall from the 2018 benchmark of $3.25 billion, when the country enjoyed record-breaking annual earnings of $4.38 billion. On average, monthly earnings between January and September have hovered around $274 million, indicating limited revenue acceleration despite growing arrivals.

To reach the government’s $5 billion year-end target, Sri Lanka would need to earn over $2.52 billion in the final quarter an average of more than $840 million per month. Analysts caution that this is “challenging but not impossible,” noting that sustained high occupancy rates, increased per-tourist spending, and strong winter season arrivals would be essential to bridging the gap.

The gap between arrivals and revenue underscores deeper structural issues in Sri Lanka’s tourism model. Analysts attribute the weak revenue performance to the predominance of low-budget travelers, inadequate marketing to high-spending segments, limited diversification of experiences, and infrastructure bottlenecks in key destinations. Many visitors continue to choose short-stay or low-cost accommodation options, resulting in reduced overall expenditure per head.

The shortfall has macroeconomic implications. Tourism remains one of Sri Lanka’s top foreign exchange earners, and sluggish growth in sectoral income limits the country’s ability to strengthen reserves and reduce external pressure. A failure to meet the $5 billion target could also dampen fiscal expectations and affect investor confidence in the broader recovery narrative.

However, some optimism persists. Industry insiders point to upcoming winter bookings, renewed airline connectivity, and a stronger push into European and East Asian markets as potential drivers of a fourth-quarter rebound. If supported by targeted promotional campaigns, improved infrastructure, and enhanced digital marketing, the sector could regain some lost momentum.

Yet, without a significant boost in tourist spending and high-value offerings, Sri Lanka risks repeating the pattern of high arrivals but low returns a scenario that could undermine the long-term sustainability of one of the country’s most vital economic pillars.

Economic Summit 2025: Sri Lanka’s Test of Investor Confidence

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By: Staff Writer

October 14, Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka’s decision to host the Economic and Investment Summit 2025 in December could become a turning point in rebuilding investor confidence and restoring economic momentum after years of crisis.

Jointly organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Employment and Tourism and the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce (CCC), the event aims to position the country as a strategic investment hub and reconnect it with global capital markets.

At a hybrid briefing held on 10 October, Deputy Minister Arun Hemachandra called for renewed international business partnerships ahead of the summit, scheduled for 2–3 December 2025 in Colombo.

Addressing diplomatic missions and trade partners, he noted that the country’s “remarkable post-crisis recovery”supported by improved foreign reserves, macroeconomic stability, and reform momentum has created an environment conducive to foreign investment.

Ceylon Chamber Chairman Krishan Balendra described the event as a high-impact platform to showcase sectoral opportunities in tourism, energy, logistics, and technology.

He urged embassies to mobilize investor delegations and promote Sri Lanka as “Asia’s next emerging opportunity.” The Chamber’s Secretary General Buwanekabahu Perera added that the summit would serve as a confidence-building initiative linking policy reforms with tangible investor engagement.

The summit comes as Sri Lanka’s economy shows early signs of stabilization amid ongoing structural challenges.

According to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), inflation turned positive at 1.5% in September 2025, after months of deflation, while the economy is projected to grow by around 4.5% this year. Growth is being driven by a rebound in tourism, higher remittance inflows, and gradual recovery in exports.

Official worker remittances rose 20% year-on-year during the first nine months of 2025 to reach US$5.8 billion, while gross official reserves increased to over US$5 billion, providing a modest cushion for external payments. The rupee has remained relatively stable, supported by improved confidence following progress in foreign debt restructuring and fiscal discipline efforts.

Yet significant risks remain. Fiscal deficits are still estimated above 5% of GDP, while total public debt—though restructured remains over 100% of GDP. Private investment remains subdued, reflecting lingering policy uncertainty, slow implementation of capital projects, and limited investor assurance.

The government’s reform program has gained external validation following the IMF’s staff-level agreement in October 2025, unlocking US$347 million under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The IMF commended the authorities for progress in revenue reforms, energy pricing, and governance, but emphasized that sustained commitment is essential to maintain macroeconomic stability and restore investor trust.

This continued engagement with the IMF, together with gradual improvements in fiscal management, provides the backdrop for the December summit. It signals to potential investors that Sri Lanka is serious about policy continuity and transparency—key preconditions for attracting long-term capital.

For the Economic and Investment Summit to have real impact, it must move beyond symbolic dialogue and deliver actionable investment outcomes. Investors will look for clear project pipelines, transparent regulatory frameworks, and credible legal protections. The Ministry and CCC are coordinating with Sri Lankan missions abroad to ensure strong international participation and targeted business matchmaking.

If effectively executed, the summit could convert macroeconomic stabilization into tangible growth, demonstrating that Sri Lanka is not merely recovering but repositioning itself as a credible, reform-driven economy in South Asia.

The coming months will determine whether the December summit becomes another policy showcase or a genuine catalyst for investment-led recovery and sustainable growth.

Hayleys Tops LMD 100 Again, Posts Record Earnings

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By: Staff Writer

October 14, Colombo (LNW): Hayleys PLC has once more cemented its status as Sri Lanka’s leading listed corporation, reclaiming the top position in the 32nd edition of the LMD 100 rankings — the 10th time since the list’s inception in 1995. This recognition underscores Hayleys’ deep-rooted stature as an economic pillar, exemplifying resilience, innovation, and forward-looking value creation.

In the 2024/25 financial year, Hayleys delivered a landmark performance. The Group’s consolidated revenue reached Rs. 492.2 billion, marking a 13% increase year-on-year and representing the highest turnover in its 148-year history. Profit Before Tax climbed to Rs. 35.4 billion (a 40% increase), while Profit After Tax surged to Rs. 22.5 billion, up 52% over the prior year.

A substantial export income of US$685 million accounted for 53% of total Group revenue, reinforcing Hayleys’ role as a major contributor to Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange earnings. Beyond its financial feats, the Group remains one of the country’s largest private-sector employers, with a workforce of approximately 38,000, and supports over 27,000 indirect livelihoods across its value chains. In 2024/25 alone, Hayleys generated Rs. 152 billion in cumulative economic value through payments to government, employees, lenders, and nearly 13,000 shareholders.

Hayleys’ diversified operations span 16 industry verticals and over 20 countries. The company holds a commanding global position in key export commodities: it supplies nearly 5% of global demand for household and industrial rubber gloves (both supported and unsupported), and commands 16% of the global market in coconut shell–based activated carbon. Within Sri Lanka, it is the largest manufacturer and exporter of fabric, aluminum extrusion profiles, processed fruits and vegetables, hybrid flower seeds, and tissue culture plants.

The Group’s leadership attributes the success to its human capital and collaborative models. The Chairman & CEO remarked that achieving the top spot in LMD 100 for the tenth time speaks not only to financial strength, but also to the dedication of employees across Sri Lanka and abroad, as well as the many thousands of small-scale partners in its value chains. He emphasized that such recognition belongs to the entire ecosystem driving Hayleys’ progress in innovation, diversification, digital transformation, and ESG integration.

The firm’s institutional priorities remain anchored in an inclusive mission: to earn for the nation, empower communities, and generate enduring value for all stakeholders. With macroeconomic signals in Sri Lanka showing tentative stabilization, Hayleys says it remains confident in future prospects and will continue investing in progress that strengthens both the nation and its own growth trajectory.

Hayleys has long been a champion of inclusive business. It links rural smallholder farmers to global markets through training, fair-buyback systems, and sustainability initiatives. Programs like ‘First Light’ (for rubber smallholders) and ‘Harith Angara’ (for coconut-based charcoal suppliers) embed fairness, security, and sustainability into its value chains. These efforts are internationally recognized for social impact and aim to ensure that export-driven growth also strengthens livelihoods widely across Sri Lanka.

In terms of financial stewardship, Hayleys has maintained its national long-term credit rating of ‘AAA (lka)’, reaffirmed by Fitch Ratings in March 2025 a testament to disciplined governance and a robust balance sheet. On the sustainability front, 74% of the Group’s energy consumption now comes from renewable sources, supporting a 14% reduction in GHG emission intensity (Scope 1 & 2) over the past year.

Through robust financial performance, inclusive business models, and strong governance, Hayleys continues to set the benchmark for Sri Lanka’s corporate sector a beacon of stability and responsible growth in challenging times.