Showers or thundershowers will occur at times in Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, North-Western and Northern provinces and in Galle and Matara districts and heavy showers above 100 mm can be expected at some places in Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Galle district, the Department of Meteorology said in a statement.
Fairly heavy showers above 75 mm can be expected in Matara, Puttalam, Mannar, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts.
Showers or thundershowers will occur elsewhere over the Island during the afternoon or night.
General public is kindly requested to take adequate precautions to minimise damages caused by temporary localised strong winds and lightning during thundershowers.
Marine Weather:
Condition of Rain:
Showers or thundershowers will occur at times over the sea areas around the Island. Heavy showers may occur in the sea areas off the coast extending from Kankasanturai to Matara via Puttalam, Colombo and Galle.
Winds:
Winds will be south-westerly and wind speed will be (25-35) kmph. Wind speed may increase up to (45-55) kmph at times in the sea areas off the coast extending from Kankasanturai to Pottuvil via Puttalam, Colombo, Galle, Matara and Hambantota.
State of Sea:
The sea areas off the coast extending from Kankasanturai to Pottuvil via Puttalam, Colombo, Galle, Matara and Hambantota will be rough at times and the other sea areas may be fairly rough at times. Temporarily strong gusty winds and very rough seas can be expected during thundershowers.
LNW earlier disclosed that President Ranil Wickremesinghe is interested in holding the next Presidential Election in 2023, and now political sources claim that such an election is likely to be held in March next year.
Plans are already underway for the holding of a Presidential Election next year, and despite the holding of such a poll not being possible until November 2023 in compliance with the provisions of the existing Constitution, the authorities are looking forward to making the necessary constitutional amendments in this regard, sources added.
The holding of a Presidential Election may not be opposed by parties of the Opposition like the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), who recently have been demanding that the holding of an election soon would be of utmost importance, hence the planning for the conduction of such an election being possible early next year.
Wickremesinghe has also planned to foster a surrounding in the country where the severe economic calamity could be alleviated to a certain extent by January 2023, so that an election can be held, sources further disclosed.
IMF expresses “deep concern” about current situation in Sri Lanka: says it hopes to “work fast” to end suffering of the country’s poor: it’s now over 7 months from the time Sri Lanka initially sought IMF help, but no funds received yet from IMF or any other bi-lateral source.
Inter Company Employees Union President Wasantha Samarasinghe says the EPF is continuing to recklessly invest in Sri Lankan government securities even after the sovereign default on 12th April 2022, and the credit rating downgrade to “D”: demands such investments be stopped immediately.
Uttara Lanka Sabagaya leader & former Minister Wimal Weerawansa says CB Governor Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe is suffering from a huge “conflict of interest” as he receives a massive pension from the IMF: also questions the legality of the “debt default” as it has not received the necessary approvals.
Sri Lankan author Shehan Karunathilake wins the prestigious Booker Prize 2022 for his novel “The seven moons of Maali Almeida”, a supernatural satire set amidst the Sri Lankan “civil war”: receives award from the Queen Consort.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe states he has discussed Sri Lanka’s “debt restructuring” with Chinese Finance Minister and is “optimistic” of success.
Analysts say more companies are setting up businesses outside due to looming corporate tax hikes: since 2020, many politicians, businessmen and analysts have expressed concerns that government revenue has reduced, and demanded that tax revenue be increased.
Sri Lanka’s tourism earnings in September drop for the 2nd consecutive month due to weaker arrivals: cumulative 9-month earnings amount to USD 946 mn only.
Sri Lanka ranks 64th out of 121 countries in the Global Hunger Index 2022: with a GHI score of 13.6, the level of hunger is “moderate”.
Sri Lankan High Commissioner in India and founder of “Pathfinder” Foundation Milinda Moragoda says any security threat to India is also a security threat to Sri Lanka: says the strategically located country is exploring “trilateral cooperation opportunities with Japan, Israel and UAE”, together with India.
Prices of Petrol 92 reduced by Rs 40 per litre & Auto Diesel by Rs 15: new price of Petrol 92 will be Rs 370 per litre & Auto Diesel Rs 415.
Everybody knows that Sri Lankan Central Bank (CBSL) is non-active in its almost all national economic policy powers authorized in the Monetary Law Act (MLA) except money printing. Therefore, it is reasonable to state that the CBSL is an operationally bankrupt central bank in the world.
One leading economist connected to the CBSL commented in 2015 that the CBSL was a bankrupt institution similar to Sri Lankan Airline due to the erosion or negative capital position. However, this kind of capital-based description of bankruptcy as in the case of commercial businesses does not apply to central banks as they can print money and make profit.
Therefore, the purpose of this article is to shed some light on how the operationally bankrupt CBSL’s money printing policy is gradually murdering the Sri Lankan economy and its people who have been in the economic ICU from the middle of 2021.
The article primarily highlights systemic risks of the economy arising from the present monetary policy strategy of the CBSL that have potential of killing the already dying economy.
Why CBSL is operationally bankrupt?
The MLA has mandated the CBSL to secure the economic and price stability and financial system stability of the country with a view to encouraging and promoting the development of productive resources of the country through the policy actions authorized in the MLA.
Policy actions authorized in the MLA fall in broad operational areas. Those are open market operations (OMO), credit operations with banks, management of foreign currency reserve and exchange rate, regulation and supervision of banks and bank credit and fiscal agent and public debt management. The monetary conditions of the economy, i.e., money printing, money supply and interest rates, are the outcomes of those operations.
The CBSL is now operationally bankrupt due to the loss or inactivity of many of its authorized policy operations.
First, foreign currency management function is lost due to the collapse of its foreign currency reserve to almost zero of liquid reserves while the CBSL has appealed to international community to provide it with foreign currency aid to finance essential imports.
Second, banking sector soundness and prudence is at grave risks due to significant erosion of the quality of bank credit and liquid assets consequent to the present economic crisis and super-high interest rates. Therefore, bank financial statements are only continuing business accounting exercises. As such, the CSSL effectively has lost its crisis prevention and resolution measures. Accordingly, the CBSL has no option but to urge blanket government guarantee for bank deposits and loans in the event of a systemic liquidity crisis as fancy capital adequacy and liquidity ratios enforced at present are meaningless during times of economic crises. Therefore, the regulatory and supervisory function remaining is only the continuation of routine correspondence handling.
Third, economic sector-based bank credit delivery/distribution policy is dormant due to super-tight monetary policy. Therefore, the economy is deprived of policy-driven bank credit for encouraging and promoting the development of productive resources of the country
Fourth, fiscal agent and debt management function has been lost due to the default of foreign debt by the CBSL on 12 April 2022 and prevailing unsustainable debt pile without an orderly functioning debt market with a rollover facility.
Therefore, the remaining CBSL function is the OMO-based money printing or monetary operations (or CBSL Treasury Operations) to assist the management of overnight inter-bank liquidity and government treasury liquidity.
In this context, Sri Lankan economy is like a patient being murdered in the ICU due to non-treatment of prescribed macroeconomic drugs by the CBSL while the government and CBSL top officials travel world over to import already failed drugs from the IMF and international well-wishers.
How CBSL monetary operations are murdering already dying Sri Lankan economy
Nobody needs economic interpretation to establish that Sri Lanka is a dying economy, given its zero foreign reserve, inflation running above 70%, economic contraction of 8%-10%, government bond interest rates rising above 33% and nearly 76% of money printing to fund the government.
Therefore, given below are the early warning signs that the death of the economy is speeded up by the CBSL’s present model of monetary operations.
The present monetary model is the deadly weapon that targets overnight inter-bank interest rates and government Treasury bill yield rates at high levels to keep the bank credit conditions restrictive. Its purpose is to contract the economy further for inflation control through the contraction of the aggregate demand in the economy.
Accordingly, how this monetary operation prescription is poised to murder the already dying economy is shown by following four categories of warning signals presented in graphics. The analysis is given for the period from mid-August 2021 to last Friday (14 October 2022) as the monetary policy tightening during this period is considered as the murder weapon.
Risks of Soaring Interest Rates
The CBSL uses policy interest rates (SDFR and SLFR) and Treasury bill yield rates as benchmarks to drive interest rates and monetary conditions in the economy (see CH 1 below). The policy interest rates corridor is the space given for the mobility of overnight inter-bank interest rates as intervened by standing deposits and standing lending under the OMO. Meanwhile, the CBSL controls Treasury bill yields at weekly auctions by intervening in auctions through the direct purchases of Treasury bills by itself and arranging private placements to primary dealers.
Accordingly, policy interest rates have been raised from 4.5%-5.5% to 14.5%-15.5% during this period. Its super-hike (8 percentage points) has commenced from 8 April this year. In addition, Treasury bill yields have been driven faster from 5.25% to 33%. Such high interest rates show considerable risks emerging the economy.
First, investment in real business activities will collapse due to crowding out of credit to the government sector as alternative investments will carry extra-ordinary risks.
Second, such historically high yield rates will make government domestic debt also unsustainable due to rising interest burden and rollover risk. For example, the present yields around 33% mean that discounts offered at auctions are around 30% where the government receives only Rs. 70 for each Rs. 100 worth bid accepted which is the increase in the debt causing a new debt-overhang. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to predict a near-term domestic debt default and its contagion of bankruptcy to the rest of the economy, given the heavy exposure of banks and other financial institutions including pension and insurance funds to the government debt market.
Third, protracted high interest rates disrupt spending in modern monetary economies and cause contraction and recession in economies.
Risks shown by Treasury bill Auctions
Two major risks are highlighted here.
First is the market preference for shorter tenor bills that heightens debt roll-over risks. Accordingly, almost all bids accepted are of 91-day maturity (see CH 2-5) to raise more than the total amount of all maturities offered for each auction.
Therefore, the face value of 91-day bids accepted is several times greater than the offered amount pushing 91-day yields unnecessarily high and causing financial loss to the government through higher discounts in line with same allegations leveled against auctions of Treasury bonds in the recent past.
Second is the excessive concentration risk in government debt portfolio as well as private investment portfolios in shorter tenor in the economy. This shows existence of a considerable liquidity risk that will end up in bankruptcy-threatened default risk in view of the present economic crisis.
Risks of excessive money printing to suppress Treasury bill yields
As government securities yield rates have been a major de facto monetary policy benchmark, the CBSL has conventionally been preventing market transparency and suppressing yields in line with the monetary policy requirement. One instrument used in this regard is the money printing through direct purchase of Treasury bills by the CBSL outside the auctions.
Therefore, Treasury bill holding of the CBSL shows an excessive increase since the commencement of high interest rates policy where the increase is exorbitant after 8 April 2022 (see CH 6 below). The increase in CBSL holding of Treasury bills during this period of nearly 96% or from Rs. 1,186 bn to Rs. 2,323 bn.
If not for such CBSL intervention through direct purchases of Treasury bills, yields may have increased to even 50%-60% and caused a complete bankruptcy of both the government and economy by now. However, the continuous rise in yields above 30% is a grave early warning of the near-term bankruptcy.
Such an increase in money printing in a contracting economy with a default of government foreign debt and over 70% rate of inflation is indicative of two major risks.
First is the excessive inflationary pressures caused by money printing for financing government consumption.
Second is the heavy dependence of the CBSL assets/balance sheet on government securities, i.e., nearly 70% at present. This level of exposure is like to result in financial bankruptcy of the CBSL too in the event of domestic debt restructuring discernible in the near future.
Third is the legal risk in the monetary policy as the direct purchase of Treasury bills by the CBSL outside OMO is a direct violation of the MLA.
Risks of disintermediation in the economy
Rising volumes of standing deposits and standing lending (CBSL monetary operations with banks) while the inter-bank market has become virtually non-operative during the past two months show a considerable disruption in the bank-based financial intermediation in the economy and connected systemic risks.
The non-operative inter-bank market shows two major systemic risks.
First, bank treasury operations have been lost primarily due to the lack of trade finance, prime lending operations and default of foreign debt.
Second, inter-bank trust has been lost due to huge banking risks being smoked under ashes arising from the present economic crisis.
Standing deposits and lending have been considerably increasing (see CH 7 below) with a faster increase in standing lending. For example, standing deposit volume has risen to Rs. 379 bn. from blow Rs. 100 bn in early August 2021 whereas standing lending volume has sharply increased to Rs. 800 bn. from the level close to Rs. 100 bn. in early August 2021. Therefore, this OMO trend is reflective of an acute problem of bank disintermediation in the economy with several systemic risks.
First, banks earn risk free profit by mobilizing savings and normal fixed deposits below 13% and parking funds overnight at 14.5% at the CBSL. The CBSL accepting deposits is not a part of the credit-based intermediation.
Second, banks borrow at 15.5% overnight from the CBSL and finance gaps in business of investment in Treasury bills with yields above 30%. The majority of proceeds of bank deposit mobilization is also channeled to Treasury bill investments weekly. This has replaced the bank credit business with the private sector due to heightened credit risks.
Third, the non-operative overnight inter-bank market shows the loss of the overnight inter-bank interest rate target-based monetary policy model presently adopted by the CBSL because the money market does not have overnight inter-bank interest rates to operate within the policy rates corridor. As such, banks use financing facilities under policy rates for managing their short-term investments in government securities.
Fourth, standing deposit business is not a policy action authorized in the MLA. Therefore, the legal risk exposed to the present monetary policy model of the CBSL cannot be lightly taken.
Final Remarks
The above presentation highlights major early warnings of systemic risks of the government and economy as revealed from published aggregate statistics behind the monetary policy operations.
As the CBSL economists have ample disaggregate statistics monitored by a number of departments such as economic research, macroprudential surveillance and resolution and enforcement assisted by several expert committees, they must know where the triggers exist for the economy’s death possible in the near-term.
Meanwhile, it is surprised that the top officials of the government and the CBSL appeal financial aid by way of foreign currency grants and debt relief from the international community led by the IMF and World Bank to recover the economy from the risk of the near-term death.
It is revealed that the domestic fiscal and monetary policy autonomy also has been compromised for this purpose to meet with conditions imposed by the international community as shown by super-high interest rates monetary policy and unbearable tax hikes despite the widespread economic contraction.
Therefore, early warnings for systemic economic risks presented above would help the policy-making authorities and general public to be more cautious despite the differences of opinions as early warnings are not mathematically formulated facts but information and knowledge-based hunches.
(This article is released in the interest of participating in the professional dialogue to find out solutions to present economic crisis confronted by the general public consequent to the global Corona pandemic, subsequent economic disruptions and shocks both local and global and policy failures.)
(Former Director of Bank Supervision, Assistant Governor, Secretary to the Monetary Board and Compliance Officer of the Central Bank, Former Chairman of the Sri Lanka Accounting and Auditing Standards Board and Credit Information Bureau, Former Chairman and Vice Chairman of the Institute of Bankers of Sri Lanka, Former Member of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Author of 10 Economics and Banking Books and a large number of articles published)
Several websites reported this (17) afternoon that President Ranil Wickremesinghe has telephoned National Organiser of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) Basil Rajapaksa yesterday to enter a pact in order to contest the upcoming General Election together. The reports further claimed that the two agreed that anyone criticising the United National Party (UNP) or leaving the Party will not be given nominations from the SLPP, and anyone criticising the SLPP or leaving it will not be given nominations from the UNP either.
These reports came in after a well known local English newspaper claimed this morning that about 40 MPs and Ministers of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) are preparing to leave the Party to become independent towards the goal of a new political journey and are prepping themselves to extend support to President Ranil Wickremesinghe, indicating that the latter may have been a planted story to intimidate those wanting to leave the Ruling Party.
Nonetheless, a number of internal conflicts have occurred within the SLPP as of the present, according to political sources.
With the out-of-the-blue-decision to announce that Sri Lanka has resorted to forex debt default six months ago on April 12, 2022, all investments entitled to the country have been endangered, and despite the risk, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) continues to collect investments from the country’s workforce under treasury bills and bonds through the Employee Provident Fund (EPF), alleged President of the Inter-Company Employees Union and JVP former MP Wasantha Samarasinghe, in a letter addressed to the Employee Provident Fund (EPF) of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL).
The net worth of the EPF is currently about Rs. 3.5 trillion and more than 95 per cent of them has been invested on treasury bills and bonds, Samarasinghe disclosed, questioning as to why such investments are being made when the country is officially in a bankrupt status.
The Union Chief urged the CBSL not to make further investments on treasury bills and bonds through the EPF and resort to re-financing over every matured bill and bond instead, warning that otherwise, the CBSL shall be held accountable for endangering the EPF.
He added that they as the workforce of Sri Lanka will take legal actions against the CBSL on both professional and personal capacities, should the country’s monetary regulator continue to collect investments through the EPF.
The former MP, therefore, requested the EPF of the CBSL to grant them a meeting to discuss this matter immediately.
T. Dhanujan, a local from Kirankulam, one of the poorest cities in Batticaloa cursed by the wrath of poverty, is only 16 years old when he made his 3-metre high pole vault jump with a bamboo stick. His talent does not merely speak for itself, for it is an untold story of a young man whose bravery, courage and energy to take risks at extreme conditions are underrated by society.
Dhanujan is studying for his Ordinary Levels this year, and as you may have witnessed this video clip showing the young lad making a jump in a place where people’s best interest is not a playground for sport, but a land to cultivate for mere survival, or means to save the breath till the day dies, the mere thought of changing ‘the system’ would be swimming upstream against the tide, hence the foundation to this article – someone who truly felt and valued these uncut gems from the bloc arrived in Kirankulam Maha Vidyalaya three years ago to actually take that risk.
Rishanthan, the crusader seeking hidden talents like Dhanujan, had national level appreciations only for Cricket and Elle, as a result of being a social critter of limited access who had never seen beyond the boundaries of his school playground, and is now conducting research about pole vault and coaching those practicing the sport and long distance runners.
In a country that gives no space for such researches at all, Rishanthan is putting up a standalone fight in his appointment as a sports coach, reminiscing another legend Valala Ratnayakeye Susantha Fernando, who turned the field of school athletics upside down. Like Fernando, who merely started his career as a Cricket boy and later advanced himself to a manifestation unlike anything anyone has ever seen, Rishanthan can be described as someone who is knowingly, or unknowingly, following in his footsteps.
But the real question is, will Rishanthan find what is looking for? Will little Dhanujan gain what he is hoping for?
Dhanujan and his coach Rishanthan
The practicalities of these questions are of physical nature, as Dhanujan has no flexible pole to make his ‘one pitch’ jump that will allow him to show his true colours, and Rishanthan’s goals are hardly recognised by the industry. Dhanujan has not the additional advantage of putting his weight on a flexible pole for pole vault. He may pass a hurdle of 3 metres for now, but pushing the boundary further would be dangerous, would it be not?
The answer to his unanswered question lies with many people among us, but none of them has the tendency be held accountable and prefers to run from it. Sometimes, they question us back, the same question we ask from them. Uncut diamonds like Dhanujan may yet to understand this bitter truth about society, but he surely knows that he can push his 3-metre limit, had he possessed a flexible pole, and that he will physically be safe, had he been provided mattresses to be fallen onto.
Coming from a village kissed by poverty, young lads like Dhanujan cannot afford to buy a pole. Losing the love of a father at the age of 2, Dhanujan keeps breathing thanks to his mother’s garment job. He lives with his mother and grandmother, more the burden with a little income, and everything depends on a small stack of rupees, as long as Dhanujan’s mother paddles the machine.
Agriculture is Dhanujan’s favourite subject in School. He loves farming but does not farm. Why?
Because he has no land to cultivate, except the small house he is living in.
Dhanujan the young pole vault jumper dreams big, to become a coach to young lads like him one of these days. But he has no pole for pole vault. Dhanujan loves to cultivate, but he has no land to resort to either.
Playground with a circumference of 150 metres
Are we to learn that simple things like making the dreams of people like Dhanujan come true can be achieved instead of being shot in the chest at a rebellion to satisfy the needs of the youth, these boys will surely win the country. They will bring fame, earn respect.
There are children below the age of 11 who are capable of jumping the limit of 2 metres.
Rishanthan is a good teacher who puts his efforts to make their dreams a reality. But does society feel for people like Dhanujan or Rishanthan? We are not legally obliged to protect Dhanujan, but neither can we afford to be isolated amidst such social tragedies.
Kids like Dhanujan are hindered by disparity and lack of resources, and in the case of Rishanthan, his efforts are wasted like pouring water into an overturned pot.
Will anyone be able to save people like Dhanujan from this social calamity? Without violence, without riots, will anyone be able to turn back the overturned pot so that people like Rishanthan will be able to pour water?
Chairman of the National Gem & Jewellery Authority, Thilak Weerasinghe has been removed from his post, based on a number of corruptions and frauds committed during his tenure.
Weerasinghe has been accused of many irregularities under his watch, including allowing illegal mining and attempting to release a confiscated pouch containing gems worth around Rs. 01 billion illegally.
The Parliamentary Committee on Public Enterprises (CoPE) is also conducting a probe into these allegations.
Fuel prices will be revised effective from 9 pm tonight (17), announced the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CEYPETCO).
Accordingly, the price of 92 Octane Petrol will be slashed by Rs 40 per litre to be sold for Rs. 370 and the price of Auto Diesel will be slashed by Rs. 15 per litre to be sold for Rs. 415.
Meanwhile, Lanka Indian Oil Company (LIOC) has also revised their fuel price simultaneous to that of the CEYPETCO effective from tonight.
Accordingly, LIOC has slashed the price of 92 Octane Petrol by Rs. 40 per litre and Auto Diesel Rs. 15 per litre.
Journalist Chamuditha Samarawickrama who is working at HiruTV has been issued summons to appear before the Colombo District Court tomorrow (18), in connection with a case filed by former Director of the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) Shani Abeysekara accusing him of defamation.
Abeysekara in his lawsuit points out that he has been a well reputed officer in the service of Sri Lanka Police and accuses Hiru TV and Samarawickrama of making an defamatory comment during the television programme ‘Paththare Wisthare’ aired on October 19, 2021.
